PSG v Chelsea: Mourinho's tactical masterplan set to frustrate the hosts

Will Chelsea bring the French champions to their knees?

After three winning tips on Ligue 1 at the weekend James Eastham casts his eye over PSG's chances as the Champions League resumes this week...

PSG v Chelsea
Tue, 19:45 GMT
Live on ITV1

For the second year running PSG and Chelsea meet in a clash of two of the richest and most star-studded sides in Europe. Last year Chelsea went through on away goals (3-3 on aggregate) in the quarter-finals. Will PSG reverse the outcome this time around?

Match Odds
PSG 2.8615/8, Chelsea 2.8415/8, The Draw 3.39/4

The market makes this game around 50-50 and that's understandable. Chelsea are favourites to win the tie but home advantage evens things up for this first leg in Paris.

One of the hosts' main problems is the seemingly low mood in their camp. The players and coach Laurent Blanc have been heavily criticised for poor performances since the turn of the year, star man Zlatan Ibrahimovic is a shadow of the inspiring force he was in his previous two seasons in the French capital and PSG are below-strength on their right wing as Marquinhos (more accomplished than Gregory van der Wiel) and Lucas Moura are out through injury.

Does that open the door for a Chelsea victory? The Blues have a good away record this season - W9-D6-L2 (53% win rate) away to top-flight teams in all competitions - but it depends how Jose Mourinho approaches the game. The draw is equally tempting so consider both selections.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.715/7, Overs 2.3611/8

In recent weeks PSG's defence has been their strength. They conceded two late goals against Caen (2-2) on Saturday but that was largely because they had to play the final minutes of the game with only nine men having suffered two injuries after making all three substitutions. PSG had kept clean sheets in four of their previous five games and the return to form of Thiago Silva had been a real boost.

Chelsea have the Premier League's second-best defensive record and kept clean sheets in two of their three away games in the Champions League group phase. A cautious rather than gung-ho approach seems likely so Unders is the smart pick, although the odds-on price holds little appeal.

Draw No Bet
PSG 1.981/1, Chelsea 1.9620/21

If, like me, you think Chelsea will avoid defeat but cannot decide whether to back Chelsea or the Draw, the Draw No Bet (DNB) market is for you. By backing Chelsea, you'll win if Chelsea win and get your money back if the game ends all-square.

To Score

The obvious contenders sit at the top of the goalscorer market - Ibrahimovic, Edinson Cavani, Diego Costa, Eden Hazard and so on. If you're looking for a player to score at bigger odds consider PSG's ex-Chelsea defender David Luiz (9.417/2), an effervescent force in recent weeks, and Blaise Matuidi (10.09/1), who's yet to find the net in Ligue 1 this season but has an ability to get into the penalty area and possesses decent finishing skills.

Recommended Bet
Chelsea Draw No Bet @ 1.9620/21