Can Zingano be the first to beat Rousey at UFC 184?

On February 28th, Ronda Rousey will defend her UFC women’s Bantamweight title against challenger Cat Zingano at UFC 184. This UFC 184 betting preview takes a tactical look at factors to consider when betting the main event.

Rousey

If you’re not familiar with Ronda Rousey, please read this article. Rousey is a phenom; an Olympic medalist in Judo-turned MMA fighter who’s gone 10-0 in her professional career, with just one of those fights lasting beyond the first round.

That one fight was against Miesha Tate in a rematch, going to the third round before Tate went down to an armbar…just like the rest. More on Tate in a moment.

To put this in soccer terms, Rousey would be a three-goal favourite against just about anyone at this point; her dominance is that established.

The real question in betting on or against her is whether her opponent’s long odds compare well with probability. With her opponent Cat Zingano, they just might.

Zingano 

Like Rousey, Cat Zingano has never lost, with her career spanning nine fights. The eighth win came against the same Meisha Tate who took Rousey to three rounds; her loss to Zingano though, was by technical knockout, the first Tate suffered in six years.

Fighters who can score knockouts with any regularity in high-level women’s MMA are something of a rarity, and with five such wins in her last six fights, Zingano has proven as proficient as any woman fighter in recent memory.

She’s also shown herself to have some versatility to her game, with three submission wins enough to give Rousey something else to think about.

One other consideration with Zingano; she doesn’t bring a lot of ring experience.

Despite going into the third round, her September fight against Amanda Nunes featured a dominant performance on her part, and she hadn’t fought previously since April 2013.

While training can always change the story, Zingano appears on paper to be a very fresh fighter.

The match up

The first question with any Rousey match is whether her opponent can keep her off their arm. Zingano is an offensive force; the KOs come as part of a methodical but aggressive attack that sees her land 3.09 strikes per minute with an impressive 73% accuracy. That however, doesn’t speak to her defensive abilities.

Zingano tends to absorb strikes more than avoid them, a tendency that Rousey may not mind. As the world has wised up to the danger of the armbar, Rousey has adjusted, scoring first-round knockouts in her last two matches.

While the first of those (a knee to Sara McMann’s midsection) didn’t seem to be of the calibre to knock Zingano out, Rousey’s 16-second demolition of Alexis Davis in July could have taken anyone. Zingano may have to practice some caution. Her KOs have all come in the second or later rounds, so that may play into her gameplan.

Ultimately, when betting on this fight, you need to determine whether you think Zingano can survive the first round. Rousey’s jaw hasn’t been tested much, so Zingano’s late-round heroics may come into play.

Her seemingly spotty defence makes that seem like a dubious proposition, but if she can maintain distance and be methodical with her strikes, those extremely long odds on her have to start looking good.

One last word of advice: Rousey has been a big favourite in her last three fights. In all three, we’ve seen a late move on the underdog.

That’s not a promise that it will happen that way again, but a last minute bet may get you a slightly better payoff if you like the champion to keep her title.

Click here to see the latest UFC 184 odds.