Southampton v Liverpool: Rested Saints to edge low-scoring tussle

Koeman's Saints can take another big step towards Champions League football with three points here

An 11-day rest period means that Southampton can come into this Sunday's game fresh and ready to further strengthen their claims for a top four finish...

Southampton v Liverpool
Sunday 22nd February, 16:15
Sky Sports 1

Southampton

Saints fans can be forgiven for approaching this game with an aura of smugness. When the two teams met at Anfield on the opening day of the season they were the butt of most jokes and a squad that had been torn apart in the summer transfer window was expected to be embroiled in a relegation battle by now.

Yet it is they who go into this Sunday's game as favourites and even if they were to lose the match they'd still be above Liverpool in the Premier League table.

Success has been built largely upon a rigid defensive structure that has allowed opposing teams just 66 shots on target, fewer than any other Premier League side, and conceded only 17 league goals all season.

Those statistics include back-to-back clean sheets against QPR and West Ham recently, but just one win in their last four in all competitions - that which came from a last-minute goal at Loftus Road - does generate some concern.

Liverpool

Liverpool arrive on the south coast unbeaten (inside 90 minutes) in their last 17 matches in all competitions. However, recent narrow wins against Spurs, Palace and Besiktas have been far from straightforward.

Mario Balotelli sparked controversy - for a change - on Thursday night when he wrestled penalty duties from captain Jordan Henderson. The subsequent conversion quashed any potential fall out from Henderson and manager Brendan Rodgers, but Steven Gerrard's claims that the incident showed disrespect are perhaps the first signs that not everyone at the club is as tolerant of the Italian as we have been led to believe.

Balotelli's late winner against Spurs 10 days ago means that Liverpool have now had 14 different scorers in the Premier League this season, while Gerrard's penalty in that same game was the 101st that the Reds have scored in Premier League history - more than any other side.

Match Odds

While Saints go into this game on the back of an 11-day break at an often hectic juncture of the campaign, Liverpool have been embroiled in a couple of tough battles with Crystal Palace then Besiktas within the same timeframe. And that is something that I do not think we can choose to ignore here.

I don't doubt that Liverpool will be a popular bet for some punters at an appealing 3.02/1, but, having beaten Arsenal and drawn with Chelsea at St Mary's in the past two months, my money goes, tentatively, on the home win at 2.6413/8.

Over/Under 2.5

However, there will be nothing tentative about the way that I bet on there being fewer than 2.5 goals at odds of 1.845/6. Southampton's exemplary defensive record speaks for itself and a run of only one goal conceded in their last three strengthens my conviction. While Liverpool, for their part, haven't been involved in a Premier League away game with more than two goals since mid-December.

Half With Most Goals

Four of Southampton's last five Premier League games have been goalless at half time, while Opta inform us that Brendan Rodgers' side have shipped 62% of their goals in the second half, the highest proportion in the top flight. You can get a generous 3.02/1 on the score being 0-0 at the interval, but more appealing to me is the 2.35/4 about the second half having most goals which complements our punt on Under 2.5 goals nicely.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.845/6
1pt Back 2nd Half @ 2.35/4 in Half With Most Goals

Jaymes Monte 2014/15 Season P/L

Staked: 78.0 pts
Returned: 72.25 pts
P/L: -5.75 pts