Pompey fans could well be celebrating again on Saturday
Two victories, including nine goals and a comeback, have convinced Ian Lamont that Portsmouth's price is too big against Oxford in the clash of the strikers. Burton and Plymouth should also win...
Portsmouth 2.3611/8 v Oxford 3.55/2; the draw 3.412/5
Portsmouth drew attention to some unwanted statistics last weekend, by winning 6-2 at forlorn Cambridge, who have not won since Manchester United beat them in the FA Cup.
Scoring six doubled Pompey's away goals tally for the season. It also matched the total number of goals they had scored in their previous 10 games, stretching back to December 20. In none of those had they scored more than once. Then on Tuesday they not only scored three more, but came from 2-0 down to win.
If the headline act is Matt Tubbs (hat-trick on Saturday, no goals on Tuesday) Jed Wallace seems to be pulling many of the strings from midfield and Ryan Taylor seems determined not to miss out, with three goals in two games.
Results have seemingly left Andy Awford confident enough to let his weekly press conference be taken by his assistant Gary Waddock (how Aldershot have missed him), a man whom many thought had been brought in to elbow out the manager.
I jest, but whatever the reason for sending out Waddock, there seems to be a little bit of confidence on the south coast, although Oxford should offer a far stiffer test than they have faced of late.
Perhaps that is the reason for a seemingly generous price on hosts who have been 1.910/11 for home encounters earlier this season, on no other basis than the layers seemed to be running scared of a well-backed team, on the pitch as well as in the betting arena. Pompey are now unbeaten in six, with four clean sheets.
Oxford spent three days at Bisham Abbey this week, one in which Callum O'Dowda, after some fine performances, has signed a three-year deal.
They themselves scored three in their last outing, winger Alex MacDonald bagging two while Danny Hylton managed to score from a central position. Well, you shouldn't miss from the penalty spot! He has 13 goals this season, and Tubbs 16 in this division, so the battle of the strikers is on.
Having failed to score in three of their last four away games, however, Mike Appleton may not have the happiest of returns to Fratton Park, even though fans seem to bear him no ill will for trying his best in a tumultuous 11 months before leaving for Blackpool. What was he supposed to do when the club was falling apart around him? Something has galvanised Portsmouth to 14 points in six games, while the U's have eight.
Recommended Bet:
Back Portsmouth @ 2.3611/8
Wycombe 2.26/5 v Stevenage 3.814/5; the draw 3.55/2
Graham Westley remains one of those mercurial characters who seem to come up with exactly the opposite of what you want to here, but with a novel twist that nobody has given before. Immediate parallels were drawn with Sir Alex Ferguson - who often hit back at the press on questions he didn't like - when he was asked about Tom Kennedy after his starring role against Southend last weekend.
It was the second weekend in a row that the 18-year-old substitute had made a decisive impact on the game. But Westley was in no mood to big him up, calling it 'rude' to just talk about the teenager, when football is a team game. One can understand that he wants to protect his young players from big headedness, but Kennedy wouldn't have been given his chance unless he could handle the plaudits when he did well or the brickbats if he didn't.
Well, you'd hope anyway. For every Ryan Giggs or David Beckham, who shone having come through the ranks, I guess there are 100 other players who came on for half a game and utterly failed, forgettably. Of course, this is League Two and not the goldfish bowl of the Premier League or Manchester United.
But nonetheless he doesn't want to give away that he has a potential star on his hands. Having accrued some stunning results, Stevenage might find this the perfect time to face former leaders Wycombe, who must be grateful to have had a huge cushion of points to fourth, having slipped from top spot.
Stevenage have won both their previous visits to Adams Park 1-0, point out Opta. Instantly I fancied more goals than that, but checking further Opta stats shows the Chairboys have scored once in three games, conceding four times.
Furthermore they have won twice in seven games, taking eight points, and failed to score in three of them.
One wonders where they would be without Fred Onyedinma, the Millwall loanee who has five goals in his last nine games. Stevenage have not had the best results away recently, but if Westley has a plan to contain Onyedinma they can build on the confidence of defeating Southend 4-2 and sustain the winning habit. Or at least draw.
Recommended Bet
Lay Wycombe @ 2.26/5
Burton 2.01/1 v Newport 4.47/2; the draw 3.55/2
One defeat, especially midweek, against the firm grain of results which has taken a team to the top can easily be ignored - especially against Accrington, the epitome of surprise packages who don't get the respect they deserve.
For Burton, Tuesday's lapse was a first defeat since November, a 13-game unbeaten run garnering 29 points. Clearly Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's team love him as much as he says he loves them.
I am sure players such as Adam McGurk, four of whose five goals have come in the last few weeks (he scored 12 last season), are loving learning from the Dutch master who I suspect will be poached by a major club in the next year, possibly as soon as the summer.
Newport had form knocked out of them when Justin Edinburgh was being courted by Gillingham, but have gone some way to restoring it. However, last week's 1-0 setback at home to Morecambe indicates they have a way to go, as that was a fifth blank in seven games.
Oddly, Jimmy Dack is unsure whether he wants the manager's job past the summer. Brentford's Mark Wharburton would be delighted to have that option! The dangerous Yan Klukowski, who scored twice in victory at Wycombe, will have to be contained, but the hosts seem a lengthy price here.
Recommended Bet
Back Burton @ 2.01/1
Plymouth 2.68/5 v Bury 3.02/1; the draw 3.412/5
There seem some large prices about this week, considering results. But seeking value, as I must, I pose a rhetorical: which is the better play? Hit-and-miss Morecambe to beat distressed Cambridge at 2.56/4 or back a more reliable side such as Plymouth, who seem a generous 2.68/5 at home?
With Reuben Reid freshly crowned a legend after scoring all three in the 3-1 win at derby rival Exeter, plus four straight wins and one goal conceded, the Pilgrims are a form team.
The optimists now hope they can gain a top three place which, with 14 games left, they just about could. With 25 goals and seven against at Home Park, their home form is the envy of many. They have won each of their last six home games against Bury, point out Opta.
So are the Shakers really so good as to restrict the hosts' price to as large as 2.68/5? They are themselves 3.02/1. They have conceded just six times in 10 games and never more than once in that time, point out Opta. But they have also scored just 10 times in that period, while failing to score in three of their last five away games.
For the full picture, they drew 0-0 at Stevenage and beat Accrington (who have a decent home record) and Cheltenham (whose record is poor, home or away). All in all, Plymouth will be disappointed if they do not win.
Recommended Bet
Back Plymouth @ 2.68/5
P/L 2014-15
+5.21pt
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