Roberto Di Matteo has toughened Schalke up
One of the biggest derbies in German football takes place this weekend, and Kevin Hatchard's makes the Revierderby his top pick in his Bundesliga preview.
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke
Saturday February 28, 14:30
Borussia Dortmund are back on track in the Bundesliga, having secured consecutive wins against Freiburg, Mainz and Stuttgart. The recovery is fragile however, and although BVB played very well in parts of their 2-1 Champions League defeat at Juventus in midweek, the old defensive demons resurfaced for both goals. This Revierderby against bitter rivals Schalke is the acid test for Jurgen Klopp's side, and if they pass it with flying colours, people will start to talk about an unlikely bid for the top four.
The attacking side of Dortmund's game is back on point. Marco Reus has celebrated signing his new deal by finding a rich vein of form - he has netted in each of his last four games in all competitions, and Opta tell us he has contributed to nine goals in just 12 league appearances this term. Intriguingly though, just one of his six Bundesliga goals has come on home soil.
Schalke are looking for a double over their Ruhr neighbours, having beaten them 2-1 at the Veltins Arena back in September. Jens Keller was the Schalke coach then, but the victory didn't buy him much time. Since Keller was jettisoned in favour of Italian defensive doyen Roberto Di Matteo, the Royal Blues have reignited their bid for Champions League qualification. Schalke have collected 27 points from a possible 45 on Di Matteo's watch, and that run has lifted them to fourth in the standings.
Schalke can welcome back star striker Klaas-Jan Huntelaar after suspension, and they should have no fear of visiting Signal Iduna Park, as they have lost on just one of their last seven visits there. Teenage goalkeeper Timon Wellenreuther will continue in the absence of Ralf Fahrmann and Fabian Giefer, while defender Jan Kirchhoff looks set to be sidelined by injury.
Klopp has described Schalke as being like a results machine under Di Matteo, and they are certainly much more resilient and organised than they were under the sketchy guidance of Keller. Despite Dortmund's renaissance, BVB seem way too short for the home win at 1.558/15, and layers would be right to lick their lips.
However, Dortmund could edge it if they play as well as they have at times in recent weeks, so I'm taking a slightly different tack. In Schalke's 15 league games under Di Matteo, they have trailed at HT just once, and I think they'll set up to frustrate the hosts. It's also worth noting that Schalke have been behind at the break in just one of their last six league meetings with Dortmund, so it's worth laying the hosts in the Half Time market.
Recommended Bet
Lay Borussia Dortmund in the Half Time Market at 1.865/6
Bayern Munich v FC Cologne
Friday February 27, 19:30
Live on ESPN
At first glance it appears that Bayern Munich have recaptured their best form in the last fortnight, but I think the 8-0 win over Hamburg and the 6-0 victory at Paderborn that followed it say more about the opponents than they do about the champions. The game that came between those domestic cakewalks was a tense and tetchy goalless draw with Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League, and that display was more indicative of how Pep Guardiola's men have been performing since the winter break.
A home game against newly-promoted FC Cologne would seem to be a great opportunity for Bayern to rack up another big win, at least that's what the markets appear to be saying. However, I think a resolute Cologne side can make life more difficult for Bayern than some people think.
Cologne are 13th in the Bundesliga, and sit just three points above the dropzone, but they have the fourth-best defence in the top flight. Peter Stoger's well-organised outfit have kept three clean sheets in five games since the winter break, and across the whole season they have managed nine shut-outs. They have only lost by a margin of two goals or greater in two of their 21 matches, and they only lost 2-0 to Bayern in the reverse fixture.
Under 3.5 Goals is available at 1.9620/21, and I don't think that's a bad price. I'll be very surprised if Cologne manage to score - the Rhinelanders have drawn a blank in four of their last seven league outings, while Bayern have kept four clean sheets in a row in all competitions. Then it becomes a question of whether the hosts will score at least four goals, and I'm not sure they will against a really organised rearguard that won't allow heads to drop.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 3.5 Goals at 1.9620/21
Borussia Monchengladbach v Paderborn
Sunday March 01, 14:30
Live on ESPN
Borussia Monchengladbach's Europa League dream died on Thursday, as they were beaten 3-2 at home by the holders Sevilla. That means Lucien Favre's men have one remaining route into the Champions League, and that's via a top-four finish. Gladbach haven't quite started the Ruckrunde in the sparkling way they began the Hinrunde, but they've still picked up a respectable ten points from their five league fixtures since the winter break.
While the defence is operating pretty well, a number of attacking players have been below par. Max Kruse hasn't scored in any of his last seven appearances, Andre Hahn hasn't netted since the first week of November, and Rafael's performance level has fallen off a cliff since last season.
If those players finally click, Gladbach will hand out a spanking to someone, and I have a feeling that someone could be Paderborn. Andre Breitenreiter's men were shredded 6-0 by Bayern Munich, and while a defeat was to be expected, there were worrying aspects to the loss. At 2-0 down, Breitenreiter prepared to bring on striker Srdjan Lakic. For a few moments we thought SCP were going to go for it, and then we realised that existing frontman Elias Kachunga was the player being hauled off.
That cautious approach has suffused Paderborn's play in recent months, especially away from home. In the early weeks of the campaign Breitenreiter was happy to roll the dice, but now he's hiding under the craps table. Paderborn have scored just seven goals in their last 12 games, and that isn't good enough to keep them up. It says a lot that attacking midfielder Moritz Stoppelkamp, who was one of the heroes of the season's opening few weeks, has been tethered to the bench for the last couple of weeks.
Although Gladbach aren't at their best, I expect them to win this pretty handily against a Paderborn side that just don't seem to believe in themselves anymore. The Opta stats are damning for the visitors - no-one has scored fewer goals than Paderborn in 2015, and no-one has conceded more.
Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Monchengladbach -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.021/1
Werder Bremen v Wolfsburg
Sunday March 01, 16:30
Live on ESPN
Wolfsburg's excellent form in 2015 continued on Thursday, as they battled to a goalless draw against Sporting Lisbon in the Portuguese capital, winning the tie 2-0 on aggregate and booking a place in the last 16. Swiss keeper Diego Benaglio made nine saves, as the Wolves extended their unbeaten run to 13 matches in all competitions.
Wolfsburg striker Bas Dost didn't find the target in Lisbon, but I think his place in the team is safe, bearing in mind he's already scored 11 goals in 2015. He got Dieter Hecking's men out of jail last Sunday, as his brace helped them beat struggling Hertha Berlin 2-1 despite a rather patchy performance.
Wolfsburg are keeping pace with leaders Bayern Munich, but I suspect the eight-point gap between the sides will be extended this weekend. Wolfsburg visit a Werder Bremen side that has taken 13 points from a possible 15 in 2015, and that has won six out of seven games at the Weserstadion since Viktor Skripnik took the coaching reins.
Those home wins for Werder weren't just against weak sides. They have beaten Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in that sequence, and their confidence was plain to see as they battled to an impressive 1-1 draw at Schalke last week.
Given Werder's revival, I'm surprised to see Wolfsburg trading at evens to win. The Wolves have drawn three of their last four away games, and as they bid to make sure of a top-four finish (their words, not mine), I think they'd be fairly content to come away from Bremen with a point. The visitors are too short, and should be opposed.
Recommended Bet
Lay Wolfsburg at 2.01/1
Kevin will be commentating on Bayern Munich v FC Cologne and Borussia Dortmund v Schalke for TuneIn radio with talkSPORT. For live radio commentary, search for "Bundesliga English" on the TuneIn app or website, or listen through the official Bundesliga website
2014-15 Bundesliga P/L (1pt per bet)
Points Staked: 91
Points Returned: 92.1
P/L: +1.1 points
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