La Liga Betting: Back Big wins for the Big Two

Barcelona's in-form front three can enjoy themselves against Levante again

Real Madrid can exorcise the memory of last week's derby defeat with a straightforward home win, says Tobias Gourlay, while Barcelona can continue their good scoring form at the Camp Nou on Sunday. Elsewhere, he's found reasons to back odds-against outfits including Granada and Villarreal...

Real Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna
Saturday, 17:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Real 1.111/9, Deportivo 32.031/1, The Draw 13.5n/a

Home and away, Victor Fernandez's Deportivo have lost 6/7 encounters with the current top seven. Real Madrid humiliated them 8-2 in the reverse fixture. On the road, they have lost 3/3 by margins of two, three and three goals.

Carlo Ancelotti's team have won 6/8 home games by at least three clear goals and, despite the continued absences of James Rodriguez, Sergio Ramos and Luka Modric (among others), should take this first opportunity to bounce back from last weekend's embarrassing derby defeat.

Bale, Benzema and Ronaldo are all available and can help Los Blancos deliver Over 1.5 First Half Goals for the ninth time in 11 Liga outings at the Bernabeu this term.

Another angle to consider: Real have won both halves in 7/7 at home to teams from outside the current top five.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 1.5 First Half Goals @ 1.855/6

Granada v Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Granada 3.185/40, Athletic 2.77/4, The Draw 3.211/5

On Wednesday night, Athletic Bilbao drew 1-1 with Espanyol in the first leg of a Copa del Rey semi-final.

The Basques have traditionally prioritised the cup - they've won it more times than Real Madrid - and it's easy to imagine next week's second leg is a distraction from Saturday's game at resurgent (that might be a little premature) Granada.

Last time out at the Nuevo Los Carmenes, new boss Abel Resino guided Granada to their first home win since the opening day. After a string of draws it means they're on an unbeaten run of five there. Crucially, they have scored in each of the last four.

Without defensive shield Ander Iturraspe, Athletic's defence capitulated at home to Barcelona last weekend. Granada don't have anyone like Messi or Neymar, obviously, but even a single goal could earn them a point or more because Athletic have scored more than once in only 2/11 road games.

Recommended Bet
Back Granada Draw No Bet @ 2.26/5

Barcelona v Levante
Sunday, 16:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Barcelona 1.071/14, Levante 50.049/1, The Draw 21.020/1

Levante ended a winless streak of nine with a 4-1 success over Malaga last weekend. They've lost their last three on the road, however, and Barcelona won the reverse fixture 5-0 last September.

Right now, the Catalans' form is good enough to raise the prospect of an exact repeat or, worse, a repeat of the 7-0 scoreline from Levante's day out at the Camp Nou last season.

Luis Enrique has guided Barcelona to wins in 9/10 home games, with at least three goals for the hosts in 8/10.

Opta's noticed something interesting about the distribution of Barcelona's goals this season: more than two-thirds of them (42/62) have come in the second half.

This is reflected in this game's most compelling stat: there have been more goals after the break than before it in 9/10 at the Camp Nou.

Recommended Bet
Back Second Half in Half With Most Goals @ 2.01/1

Rayo Vallecano v Villarreal
Sunday, 18:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Rayo 3.613/5, Villarreal 2.226/5, The Draw 3.613/5

Home and away, Rayo Vallecano have lost 7/9, including 4/4 at the Campo de Futbol de Vallecas.

Paco Jemez's all-or-nothing approach (Rayo have drawn only 2/22 this season) has kept his team in the top flight since 2012. It regularly shocks other teams, but that tends to happen on the road: Jemez has guided Rayo to wins in 19/48 home games and almost as many away from home (17/50).

Villarreal have failed to win any of their last three on the road, but the last of those was at Barcelona and they held leads in the previous two before having to accept draws.

The defeat to Barcelona was the Yellow Submarine's first since early November. Throughout this season they have struggled against La Liga's best teams (W1-D0-L5 home and away against the rest of the current top six) and been ruthless with the rest (W12-D4-L0, including W3-D5-L0 on the road).

The draw is a concern, but Rayo so rarely share the points that we're ready to go all out on the away win.

Recommended Bet
Back Villarreal @ 2.226/5

Celta Vigo v Atletico Madrid
Sunday, 20:00 (Live on Sky Sports 5)
Celta 3.953/1, Atletico 2.1411/10, The Draw 3.45n/a

Atletico Madrid haven't drawn a Liga game since the reverse fixture with Celta Vigo finished 2-2 18 rounds ago. 

Since an opening-day goalless draw at Rayo Vallecano, the champions have scored in 9/9 on the road, going W6-D0-L3.

Celta Vigo have conceded to 7/10 visitors and the exceptions were the current bottom three.

Eduardo Berizzo's team snapped a 10-game winless streak last time out at Balaidos, but a total of just four goals in their last 12 matches suggests they will struggle to match Atletico.

Wide midfielders Koke and Arda Turan are missing for Diego Simeone's side this weekend, but forwards Mario Mandzukic and Antoine Griezmann have the form and confidence to overcome the disconnection of these important supply lines.

Recommended Bet
Back Atletico @ 2.1411/10

2014/15 La Liga P/L

Staked: 85.75pts
Returned: 87.06pts

P/L: +1.31pts

2013/14 P/L: +18.77pts (11.55% ROI)