Fiorentina v Spurs: Tottenham won't toss away Europa League dream

Mauricio Pochettino has some big decisions to make

Spurs are behind the 8-ball going into the second leg of their tie against Fiorentina, but despite having a major cup final coming up, Kevin Hatchard expects them to fight hard to stay in the Europa League...

Fiorentina v Tottenham
Thursday February 26, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Spurs have plenty of work to do to reach the last 16, after they were held to a 1-1 draw at White Hart Lane last week. Having taken an early lead through Roberto Soldado's impeccable finish, they surrendered a sloppy equaliser from a set piece. Fiorentina boss Vincenzo Montella made some intelligent tactical switches at the break, and La Viola managed to keep Spurs at bay.

I've read a few suggestions that Fiorentina can now play for the goalless draw that will take them through to the next round, but they're not really that type of team. They've managed just one clean sheet in their last 14 matches, and they haven't managed a shut-out at home since the first week of December.

Spurs aren't exactly a rock-solid outfit either, and at some stage they will have to force the pace at the Artemio Franchi. Encouragingly for Tottenham supporters, Mauricio Pochettino's men haven't failed to score in a game since a goalless draw with Manchester United in late December, and they haven't drawn a blank away from home since a 1-0 reverse at Besiktas in mid-December. That was largely a dead rubber at the end of the group stage, so can be at least partially discounted.

Pochettino has described this second leg as being like a final, but he has an actual cup final on Sunday to think about, with Spurs set to face Chelsea in a cracking League Cup denouement. The Argentinean must balance the two competitions, and it will be fascinating to see which team he selects on Thursday. Star striker Harry Kane was left out of the starting XI in the first leg, and Pochettino has a big decision to make about whether to keep his most prized asset fresh for Wembley.

Fiorentina will be without first-choice keeper Ciprian Tatarusanu, who made some excellent saves last week, as he has a back injury. He's joined on the sidelines by Spanish midfielder Borja Valero.

The bet that screams out at me is backing Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.84/5. I know it's not a massive price, but the evidence is compelling - 13 of Spurs' last 16 games in all competitions have seen both sides find the net, and both teams have scored in 12 of Fiorentina's last 14 outings.

There wasn't much to separate the two sides in the first leg, and the Match Odds market seems too skewed in favour of the hosts, with La Viola trading at evens for the win. Fiorentina are fifth in Serie A, but they are not as strong at home as that position suggests. Montella's men have actually won just three of their last ten home games.

Spurs have won six of their 12 away games in the Premier League, and two of their four road matches in this competition. If Pochettino decides to field a strong team, that price of 2.01/1 may well be worth opposing. I understand why people might say Spurs will have one eye on Wembley, but it could work in their favour, with players looking to impress ahead of Sunday.

Recommended Bets
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.84/5
Lay Fiorentina at 2.01/1

2014/15 Europa League P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 56

Points Returned: 60.99

P/L: +4.99 points