Football League Tips: Low score likely as Middlesbrough aim high

Gary Rowett has made Birmingham a far more resilient side

Under 2.5 goals is a sounder bet than the Middlesbrough win as they target top spot, says Michael Lintorn...

Both matches are on Wednesday at 19:45

Birmingham v Middlesbrough

Match Odds: Birmingham 4.1n/a, Middlesbrough 2.111/10, The Draw 3.55/2

Derby wasted a chance to go top of the Championship on Tuesday. A 3-3 draw at Rotherham instead left them squished between Bournemouth and Middlesbrough, with all three on 59 points. Boro can quickly kill that cosiness at St Andrew's, as avoiding defeat will re-establish them as sole leaders.

Avoiding defeat is something that Birmingham have become almost as accomplished as their visitors at since hiring Gary Rowett in October though, with their record of three losses in 16 league games since November only bettered by Aitor Karanka's men and Bournemouth.

Their ascent from 23rd to 13th has been built the same way as Middlesbrough's success this term: from the back. They conceded just 13 times in those 16 fixtures, a tally that Boro alone better. The Teessiders have leaked only 20 times in 30 Championship outings over the course of the season.

Birmingham's league figures for and against have been lower than ever recently, with their last five matches producing a mere five goals, and the lot ducking under 2.5 goals.

Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Leyton Orient v Bradford

Match Odds: Leyton Orient 3.02/1, Bradford 2.6213/8, The Draw 3.412/5

You might think that Bradford are ripe for a post-cup comedown, but they proved their juggling skill by combining League Two promotion with a Capital One Cup final appearance in 2012/13.

More significantly, Leyton Orient have been so awful at home in 2014/15 - their point-per-game average of 0.64 is the worst in the top four divisions - that it shouldn't even take much of a performance to capitalise.

The O's have pocketed a solitary point from their six clashes with top-half teams to date in east London, whereas Bradford have earned over half of their points on the road, including ten from the last available 15.

Despite winning a disappointing five of their 15 League One encounters as hosts so far in 2014/15, Phil Parkinson's cup masters eased to a 3-1 victory over Leyton Orient in November's reverse fixture.

Recommended Bet: Back Bradford to win @ 2.6213/8