Preston v Manchester United: Back Van Gaal's men to progress

Will Manchester United boss Louis Van Gaal be smiling on Monday?

The BBC cameras will be at Deepdale on Monday night hoping for an upset as Preston North End host Manchester United in the FA Cup, but Alan Dudman believes the Premier League outfit should have enough to progress...

Preston North End 7.807/1 v Manchester United 1.511/2, draw 4.707/2
Monday 19:45
Live on BBC One

Match Odds 

United are third in the Premier League and were always going to be around the 1.402/5 to 1.608/13 mark for another trip to lower league  opposition (their third consecutive one), although Preston should present a stiffer test than Yeovil and Cambridge respectively - especially on their own patch. 

Following on from Reds manager Louis Van Gaal's long ball dossier, the Dutchman had to counter comments made by Reds legend Paul Scholes that United were boring to watch. LVG brushed off the criticism this week and reverted to his favourite subject - systems. 

Whether it's a 3-5-2, 5-3-2 or a 4-4-2, the players have never really looked comfortable throughout the campaign. I listened to United's recent win against Burnley on BBC 5 Live, and wondered at one point if Steve Claridge was going to spontaneously combust. He hated the system, and couldn't believe Wayne Rooney was playing so deep. He'll probably go for a 4-4-2, and might give the nod to quicker forward James Wilson. As for the best formation for the visitors? I'm not sure even Van Gaal knows. 

Preston are fourth in League One, and after a mini-blip (including a dreadful home performance against Orient), have won their last two. This will be their first game against the Reds since 1972. In opposition that day were Denis Law, Bobby Charlton and George Best. 

North End have progressed to this stage courtesy of wins against Havant, Shrewsbury, Norwich and Sheffield United. Their opponents are certainly treating this competition seriously, as Van Gaal has started Radamel Falcao in both matches with Cambridge and Yeovil, and Angel Di Maria scored the winner in the latter. 

Whites manager Simon Grayson famously pulled off an FA Cup shock with Leeds United in 2010; winning 1-0 at Old Trafford.

Team News

Defender Phil Jones rates unlikely to start for the visitors following his knee injury against Burnley. Midfielder Michael Carrick is out with a calf problem, but Luke Shaw is available again after suspension although Robin van Persie is a doubt (knee). 

Preston forward Jermaine Beckford is highly likely to miss the game through an ear infection. Although fellow attacker Joe Garner is fit again - and he bagged a brace recently against Chesterfield.

First Goalscorer 

Preston veteran Kevin Davies joked in his press conference the man to watch out for is Chris Smalling - who astonishingly scored twice against Burnley. This tells us more about United's game than Smalling's, as the England defender is one of the least comfortable centre-backs on the ball in the top flight and treats the football as the enemy.  

Instead of looking at the aerial threat of a defender, it might be worth taking a chance at around 11.010/1 on Marouane Fellaini to net first. His introduction at Upton Park laid on Danny Blind's equaliser recently,  and if this game is 0-0, Van Gaal might sling on the giant Belgian and go direct. If he starts, even better, as he could cause Preston plenty of problems - especially now that United are famously a long ball team. 

Falcao scored in the Premier League twice in January, and has started two of the three FA Cup games. However, the former Champions are not created many chances for their attackers, and the layers might be out to get the Colombian. 

For the hosts Joe Garner is a terrific forward, but plays 'on the edge'. I'd be amazed if he wasn't booked. Veteran Davies recently scored the 150th career goal, although I refute claims he played in the 1972 match.  Paul Gallagher is Preston's leading FA Cup scorer with five so far in the competition.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

The Red Devils were held 0-0 at Cambridge with a poor performance, and didn't play particularly well at Yeovil in the previous round either. Plus all of United's last seven away games have been under 2.5. Therefore I was surprised to see the price of 2.1411/10 to dip under. 

Preston might try and emulate Cambridge in crowding the six-yard box to pressure David de Gea - who was weak against the aerial ball early in his UK career but has improved on that front.

Corners Match Bet 

Having explored this particular angle with the recent Bradford v Mk Dons match, I was intrigued to find out how United have fared on this front. Having had 75 per cent of possession against Cambridge (away from home), the Manchester club ran out 7-4 winners. Versus Yeovil they again (unsurprisingly) had most of the ball and yet lost 4-6 on the corner count. Preston are a better team but will know they will have to concede ball retention. 

North End's record is very good on this particular bet. From their last eleven games in all competitions (excluding the JPT), they have conquered their opponents on eight occasions, levelled twice, and lost out just once. United are 1.444/9 to win this bet, which doesn't look a great price - for a backer anyway.

Recommended Bets

Back Marouane Fellaini to score first @ 11.010/1 (if he starts)
Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.1411/10
Lay Manchester United in corners match bet @ 1.444/9
Back Manchester United to win 0-1 @ 9.08/1