Europa League Betting: Everton to qualify with a bang, but it's the end of the road for Celtic

Inter are improving under Roberto Mancini

Kevin Hatchard's back with his best Europa League bets, and he doubts Celtic can get the win in Italy they need to reach the last 16.

Inter Milan v Celtic
Thursday February 26, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Celtic and Inter played out an extraordinary 3-3 draw in the first leg at Celtic Park, and while the Bhoys deserve huge credit for coming back from 2-0 and 3-2 down, their failure to garner a first-leg lead could prove costly.

Inter bounced back from the disappointment of conceding that last-gasp John Guidetti equaliser, as they won 2-1 at Cagliari in Serie A at the weekend. The Nerazzurri have now won three on the spin in the Italian top flight, and they have players in form. Rodrigo Palacio (he of the ridiculous rat's tail) has bagged three goals in his last three appearances, including a double at Celtic Park. His strike partner Mauro Icardi scored the winner at the weekend, and has three goals in his last four games.

Unless we are set for another 3-3, Celtic are going to need to win at San Siro to progress, and that's a tall order. Inter have only lost three times at home all season, and none of those defeats have come in the Europa League.

Conversely, Celtic's away record in European competition is hardly impressive. In three Champions League away qualifiers their only victory came at Icelandic side KR, and they failed to win any of their three road matches in the group stage of this competition. If you stretch back in time a bit, you see that Celtic have won just two of their last 12 away games in the Champions League, and just one of their last 14 in the Europa League. I normally despise country-based statistics, but if you like that sort of thing I guess it's worth noting Celtic have failed to win on Italian soil in 11 attempts, losing eight times.

Celtic defender Virgil Van Dyk says the Scottish champions can get success if they pressure Inter as the Italians try to build attacks from the back, but that's easier to do at home with a passionate crowd behind you. Celtic were caught out twice with balls over the top at Parkhead last week, and I think they'll leave spaces at the back as they chase the goal they need to rescue the tie.

Inter should've won the first leg, and I don't expect Roberto Mancini's men to make the same mistake twice.

Recommended Bet
Back Inter -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at 2.03n/a

Everton v Young Boys
Thursday February 26, 20:05
Live on ITV 1

As they have done pretty much all season, Everton shrugged off their domestic woes last week to excel in the Europa League. Romelu Lukaku scored a fine-hat-trick in Switzerland which showcased his range of talents - aerial strength for the first goal, a poacher's instinct for the second, and deceptive speed for the third. A Young Boys side who had built up a superb home record were pulled apart like wet tissue paper, despite taking an early lead through the in-form Guillaume Hoarau.

The tie is effectively over, as Young Boys must score at least four goals at Goodison Park to progress. It therefore comes down to a question of pride, and I'd expect Young Boys to at least try to land a few blows before the judges' scorecards go against them. The Berne-based side secured an excellent 4-2 win over domestic rivals Basel at the weekend, so they have at least partially rebuilt their confidence. Star man Hoarau continued his fine run with a late goal, and he has found the net in each of his last three appearances.

Everton may not field their strongest side, but boss Roberto Martinez will be wary of weakening his team too much, as he did for the 1-0 home defeat to Krasnodar which concluded the group phase. The Toffees found huge gaps in the Young Boys defence last week, and it's worth noting that the Swiss side conceded seven goals in their three away games in the group phase.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.991/1

Dynamo Kiev v Guingamp
Thursday February 26, 18:00

Last season's Coupe de France winners Guingamp have the advantage after winning an extraordinary first leg 2-1. After Miguel Veloso had put the Ukrainian league leaders in front, the visitors had Andriy Yarmolenko and Younes Belhanda sent off before half-time. Guingamp eventually made the most of their two-man advantage and turned the match around, but a one-goal lead may not prove enough.

While Guingamp are very strong at the Stade du Roudourou, they aren't so good on their travels. Jocelyn Gourvennec's side have won just four of their 12 road matches in Ligue 1, scoring just 13 goals in that sequence. While they have beaten teams like PSG and Monaco on home soil, the picture is different against superior sides away from home. Guingamp have lost twice away to Monaco, they lost to PSG in the Super Cup, they were beaten by Marseille at the Stade Velodrome and in this competition they were swept aside 3-0 at Fiorentina.

Dynamo Kiev need to win to turn the tie around, and they won all three of their group games in Kiev. They are unbeaten at home this term in all competitions, and they have only failed to win twice. Despite the strong recent form of the visitors, I can't see them retaining their first-leg advantage.

Recommended Bet
Back Dynamo Kiev at 1.758/11

Sporting Lisbon v Wolfsburg
Thursday February 26, 20:05

Wolfsburg are in red-hot form, having won five of their six matches in 2015. The Wolves took a 2-0 first-leg lead last week, as Bas Dost's second-half double put the Wolves in command of the tie. The dangerous Dutchman is having an extraordinary year, having scored 11 goals since Christmas. Across Europe's top five leagues, only Lionel Messi has found the net more often in 2015.

Sporting have to go for it, and they'll be encouraged by the fact they made some excellent chances in the first leg. That was the first blank the Lions have drawn since the first week of November, and they haven't failed to score in a game at the Jose Alvalade Stadium since a 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in September.

Sporting almost always score, and as they push for the goals they need to turn the tie around, Wolfsburg will try to use their speed on the counter-attack. Dieter Hecking's men haven't failed to score in a game since a 2-0 home defeat to Everton in November, and they haven't been shut out away from home since September. With superb attacking players on both sides, this could be a shootout.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.9210/11

2014/15 Europa League P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 56

Points Returned: 60.99

P/L: +4.99 points