Against All Odds: City to tame Barca trio

Can Joe Hart keep out Messi, Neymar and Suarez?

The Champions League is back and Paul Robinson is predicting a tight first leg when Manchester City host Barcelona in the last 16.

Man City v Barcelona
Tuesday February 24, 19:45 GMT
Live on ITV 1

Victories over Bayern Munich and Roma earned Manchester City the right to take on Barcelona this evening and they will have to play like they did in those two matches if they have any chance of progressing further.

The Citizens haven't fulfilled their potential in this competition in recent years but they come into this game in good form having dismantled both Stoke and Newcastle in the league.

I expect this to be much tighter though as Manuel Pellegrini can't risk conceding a host of away goals. A clean sheet will be the priority and that's something that they've achieved in two of their last four at home. It's also worth noting that three of their last five at the Etihad have gone under 2.5 goals.

Barcelona had been flying but they crashed to a 1-0 defeat at the Nou Camp on Saturday as Malaga managed to score early and then keep Messi, Suarez and Neymar at bay. While that trio have been showing much improved form of late, it just goes to show that they can be kept quiet.

Interestingly, Barca met City at this stage of the competition last season and the first leg in England ended with two goals being scored. The Catalan giants then went on face Atletico Madrid, where over 2.5 goal layers were rewarded in both legs.

There is plenty of attacking talent on show but I don't think either manager will want to show their hand too early. This should be a tense affair as both clubs are under pressure to progress. That's why, with over 2.5 goals trading at around the 1.814/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Man City v Barcelona @ 1.814/5

On Saturday the Against All Odds selection of laying under 2.5 goals in Sampdoria v Genoa was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch. The re-arranged fixture is tonight at 17:30 GMT so refresh your memory of my thoughts here.  

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 52 pts
Returned: 46.36 pts
P/L: - 5.64 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)