Argentina Open 2015 Betting: Back to form Monaco too big in Buenos Aires

Juan Monaco can go well at a big price in his home town

After picking out a profitable back-to-lay choice last week in Marseille, tennis expert Sean Calvert returns to analyse the draws in Dubai, Acapulco and Buenos Aires and he has another lively outsider to consider in week eight...

There was contrasting fortunes for last week's ATP outright wagers, with one retiring sick in the fist round and the other providing a great run for our money at a big price.

Leo Mayer was a victim of the Rio heat, but Sergiy Stakhovsky proved a great investment at 65.064/1 when the Ukrainian came within a set of making the final, having beaten Stan Wawrinka along the way.

Stakho traded at 5.04/1 after leading his semi final with Gilles Simon (who, of course I tipped the week before when he lost in the Rotterdam semis), so he made a tidy profit for back-to-lay punters.

Week eight's high profile event is the $2 million Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, with the likes of Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Roger Federer involved, but it doesn't appeal much as an outright betting medium to me.

It's been won by former or world number ones every single year since 2002 and it will probably be a Djokovic/Federer final, which is all very well and good for the fans and it's this week's live offering from Sky Sports in the UK.

Instead, I'm far more intrigued with the clay court ATP 250 Argentina Open in Buenos Aires in which once again we have the opportunity to take on Rafa Nadal as an odds-on favourite.

I said last week that it was worth taking Rafa on in Rio and those that layed him would have enjoyed a nice winning week when Fabio Fognini defeated the Spaniard in the semi finals.

Rafa looks some way short of his best and the fact that he is a 1.68/13 favourite this week means that there are some nice prices around on alternatives.

And how about the 34.033/1 about Buenos Aires resident Juan Monaco, who looked to be coming back to a bit of form last week when giving David Ferrer a hard time in the Rio quarter finals.

Monaco has had a rough time with injuries lately and he hasn't had a consistent spell of matches, but he should be motivated here and his draw looks very good indeed in the weaker bottom half.

Pico is drawn alongside former champion and number two seed Tommy Robredo, who has a fine record 15-4 in Buenos Aires, but he's been struggling with injury in 2015 and was terrible in a bad loss to Andreas Haider-Maurer last week.

Robredo couldn't find the court with his forehand and on that form he'll be lucky to beat Renzo Olivo or Jarkko Nieminen in round one, although the latter seems to be having a pre-retirement jolly on the Golden Swing in his first matches ever in South America.

Nicolas Almagro is another live contender in that bottom half and with a 6-1 head-to-head career lead over Robredo, including a win over his fellow Spaniard a fortnight ago, he has a shot at 17.016/1.

Pablo Cuevas is the form pick in that bottom half, but he looked dead on his feet in a final set 0-6 slump to Nadal in Rio and after winning the Sao Paolo title then hot-footing it to Rio he may be a little short here.

Mayer may well continue the trend of previous week's picks going on to make the final in their next appearance, as Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon have done lately, but his Buenos Aires record isn't great.

Indeed, Mayer has never made a final at any level in Argentina and he looks a little short at 21.020/1 this week for my liking.

As far as Nadal's top half is concerned he may face a quick re-match with Pablo Carreno Busta or perhaps Federico Delbonis will present an early challenge, while Fognini awaits in the semi finals again.

Jiri Vesely came within match points of beating Fognini last week in Rio and he is set to meet him again in the quarter finals, but as an outright proposition the Czech looks fanciful here at 34.033/1.

The Acapulco draw is yet to take place and once that has been made and prices are available this page will be updated, hopefully with a decent value pick in Mexico, but for now I'm happy to take a bit of a chance on Monaco at home in Buenos Aires.

Recommended Bet
Back to lay Monaco in Buenos Aires at 34.033/1