Will it be all smiles for Swansea against Man Utd on Saturday?
Mike Norman previews Saturday's six 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League, and our man believes that we're certain to see goals at Selhurst Park when Crystal Palace host Arsenal...
Aston Villa 2.767/4 v Stoke 2.942/1; The Draw 3.412/5
Tim Sherwood's first league game in charge of Villa is a must-win one you feel. Fail to beat a Stoke side that has conceded eight goals in the last two games would leave the Midlands' club in real trouble at the bottom end of the table, not to mention lacking confidence.
Sherwood has said all the right things in the lead-up to the game, and we so often see a team have an immediate up-turn in results when a new man comes in, so at least that, and Stoke's poor recent form, is in Villa's favour.
But it's impossible to ignore Villa's goal tally in the Premier League - 12 scored in 25 games is a dreadful return - and I can't back them at all with this in mind. I just can't see Villa's goalscoring problems being fixed overnight, new manager or no new manager.
Mark Hughes' men are a decent outfit who sit 10th in the table despite not winning in three games. They've had some terrific results on the road this season and you sense the boss will have them fired up for an immediate reaction following their hugely disappointing FA Cup loss at Blackburn on Saturday.
It's a tough game to call, as the odds suggest, but any side that can go to Man City, Tottenham, and Everton, and come away with all three points, must have a serious chance of beating lowly Villa.
Recommended Bet
Back Stoke to Win @ 2.942/1
Crystal Palace 4.84/1 v Arsenal 1.865/6; The Draw 3.8514/5
You won't be surprised to learn that the only times Crystal Palace haven't won in the league under Alan Pardew were the two occasions that I backed them. Yes I know, us punters can't half whinge!
But on a serious note I really do find Palace a frustrating and unreliable team when it comes to Match Odds, but right at the start of the season I marked them down as a side to serious consider in goals markets whoever their opponents.
The Eagles struggled for goals towards the end of Neil Warnock's reign, but under Pardew they've only once failed to find the back of the net in eight matches. All of their first four wins under the new boss went Over 2.5 Goals, and 75% of those went Over 3.5 Goals.
With Arsenal in town you have to fancy the net bulging again. Every one of the Gunners' last 15 league and cup games have ended with at least two goals being scored, 11 of those have witnessed at least three goals and remarkably, 33% of those games ended with at least five goals being scored.
The reasons for this are simple - Arsene Wenger's men still give you a very good chance defensively, but at the other end they are capable of scoring every time they attack. Expect something similar here.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.412/5 (best bet)
Chelsea 1.211/5 v Burnley 20.019/1; The Draw 7.87/1
I'm probably in the minority, or at the very least upsetting Chelsea fans, when I say that Jose Mourinho's men have become very boring to watch.
They won plaudits in midweek for their 1-1 draw in Paris, and while I except the result is the be all and end all, the fact remains Chelsea had one shot on target in that game - and scored from it.
They constantly get credited with having a great defence, yet this season they've failed to keep a clean sheet against the likes of Burnley, Swansea, Bolton, Palace, Shrewsbury, QPR, Maribor, Derby, Villa, and of course Bradford City. The Blues have won just two of their last seven matches, scoring more than once in a game against only Villa and Bradford in that time.
The fact that they are seven points clear in the table, and that Manchester United - a team that can send you to sleep at times - are third tells me that the standard in the Premier League is arguably at an all-time low right now.
As for this game, will Chelsea win? Almost certainly yes. Will they win comfortably? I'm not so sure. Burnley are an extremely hard-working side and one that has scored at least once in eight of their last nine outings - scoring 15 goals in that time.
When you glance at that list of clubs that Chelsea have conceded against this season then backing the home side to keep a clean sheet here at odds-on is a very risky wager. It's the Clarets to get on the scoresheet for me.
Recommended Bet
Back NO in Chelsea Clean Sheet @ 2.35/4
Hull 2.111/10 v QPR 4.216/5; The Draw 3.45n/a
QPR recorded their first away win of the season in their very first game on the road following Harry Redknapp's departure. It may have only been at Sunderland, but let us not forget that, under Redknapp, QPR couldn't even win at Burton.
Prior to that win, the west Londoners had lost five on the spin, failed to win any of their previous eight league and cup games, and had lost every single away match they had played this season. The question you have to ask yourself is how much does that away win at Sunderland change your opinion of the Hoops?
Given that I believe the Black Cats are a dreadful side who will always struggle for goals - although Jermain Defoe will help a bit here - then it's hard to give QPR too much credit for the victory at the Stadium of Light.
But Hull are no great shakes either. They lost four on the spin without scoring a single goal before drawing at Man City and beating hapless Aston Villa 2-0. Those last two results and the singing of Dame N'Doye have obviously given the camp a lift, but it's still very difficult to have complete faith in Steve Bruce's men.
It's trading at just 1.75/7 but it's difficult to argue that Under 2.5 Goals isn't the way to play here. Five of the Tigers' last six home games have witnessed two goals or fewer, while QPR's poor away form has been well documented.
Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75/7
Sunderland 2.77/4 v West Brom 3.185/40; The Draw 3.39/4
Sunderland should be extremely thankful for two things - one, that they managed to persuade Jermain Defoe to join them, and two, that there are so many poor sides in the Premier League.
No club in the top flight of English football has recorded fewer league wins than Gus Poyet's men, and only Villa have scored fewer goals. Yet the Black Cats are not even amongst the five most favoured clubs to go down in Betfair's Relegation market.
Poyet's men have won just one home league game since early October - against fellow strugglers Burnley - and they go into this game on the back of arguably two of their most disappointing defeats all season, at home to QPR and at League One side Bradford in the FA Cup.
West Brom, meanwhile, are one of the form teams at the bottom end of the table. Under Tony Pulis the Baggies have won five of their last eight league and cup games, keeping five clean sheets in the process, and on Saturday they hammered a strong West Ham side 4-0 in the cup.
There's only one team going into this encounter with any confidence, and it's not the team that the layers have as favourites to win it. I'm tempted to back Albion to win without conceding, but 3.185/40 about any away win looks decent enough for me.
Recommended Bet
Back West Brom to Win @ 3.185/40
Swansea 4.3100/30 v Man Utd 2.0421/20; The Draw 3.613/5
Is your glass half full or is it half empty? To talk positively about Manchester United would be to say that they've lost just one of their last 19 league and cup games, they are third in the table, and they have a home tie in the FA Cup quarter-final to come.
The reality however is that Louis van Gaal's men are playing some dreadful football. In this 19-game sequence that I mention, amongst others, the Red Devils have faced Cambridge (twice), Yeovil, and Preston from outside of the Premier League, and the likes of relegation threatened Hull, Aston Villa, QPR, Leicester, and Burnley.
Yet from the above nine games alone, I don't think any of us can recall Van Gaal's men playing well.
Admittedly United have had 20-minute spells in these games where they eventually found their feet and scored a few goals, and that is proving enough at present. But sooner or later their poor play is going to catch up with them, and I'm taking a chance on Swansea to get the win on Saturday.
Despite this 'incredible' run United are on they have won only one of their last five league away games, and that was against a hopelessly out-of-form QPR side.
Garry Monk's men haven't been in great form recently, admittedly, but they have won at Old Trafford this term, defeated the likes of Arsenal and Everton at the Liberty Stadium, and just a fortnight ago beat high-flying Southampton away from home.
Recommended Bet
Back Swansea to Win @ 4.3100/30
You can follow me on Twitter - @MikkyMo73
Premier League 2014/15 Season P/L
Staked: 139 pts
Returned: 142.78 pts
P/L: + 3.78 pts
*based on 1pt each bet, 2pts best bet
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