Arsenal v Monaco: Hosts' firepower set to gun down the underdogs

Alexis Sanchez will be difficult to stop on Wednesday night

The hosts' attacking quality will put Monaco's depleted defence under massive pressure, writes James Eastham...

Arsenal v Monaco
Wed, 19:45 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

On paper it looks as though Arsenal have been handed one of the easier last-16 ties although Monaco - who lie fourth in Ligue 1 - arrive with a formidable defensive record. Can the visitors cause an upset or will Arsene Wenger have the last laugh against the side he led to the semi-finals of this competition 21 years ago?

Match Odds
Arsenal 1.538/15, Monaco 8.615/2, The Draw 4.3100/30

It's hardly surprising Arsenal are clear favourites to win the game considering their superior individual and collective ability and greater recent European pedigree. Monaco go into the game on a fantastic run of form - they've lost just once in 90 minutes in their last 17 matches in all competitions (W12-D4-L1) - but there are a couple of things to point out.

The first is that Monaco are simply not used to facing the sort of attacking talent that Arsenal can put out on Wednesday night. The second is that Monaco's first-choice centre-backs - Ricardo Carvalho and Andrea Raggi - are both missing, as is key defensive midfielder Jeremy Toulalan.

Deputy centre-backs Wallace and Aymen Abdennour are likely to start. They have little experience of playing alongside one another and Abdennour looked anything but assured in getting sent-off in Monaco's fortunate 1-0 win at Nice last Friday night.

There are no strong grounds to oppose the hosts, so if you fancy a bet in this market, Arsenal are the pick.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals
Unders 1.84/5, Overs 2.226/5

Much has been made of Monaco's sensational defensive record in recent months. There's no question that they are a solid team - Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 90 minutes in 15 of their last 17 matches in all competitions.

But again it is worth noting that in France Monaco simply don't face the calibre of attacker that Arsenal can name in their team this week. The absence of their best two central defenders and a key midfielder (see above) is a further reason why Monaco may struggle to be as obdurate as they are in domestic fixtures.

Unders is the favourite in this market and it paid out well last week - the first four last-16 ties all featured two or fewer goals. But I'm not convinced there's any value in the odds-on price so this is a market to leave alone.

Asian handicap

If, like me, you think Arsenal will be too strong for the visitors then the Asian handicap is a market to consider. Arsenal are short to win (see Match Odds) so the bigger prices available here may be more appealing. By backing Arsenal -1.0 Asian handicap you'll get your money back if Arsenal win by a single goal and make a profit at good odds if they win by two or more goals.

To Score

Monaco are a far from prolific team but tend to share the goals around because they lack a single outstanding goalscorer. That means there could be some value in backing some of their longer-priced players to find the net.

Left-back Layvin Kurzawa has yet to score in Ligue 1 this season but netted five times in 28 Ligue 1 games last season. Bernardo Silva scored their winner at Nice last weekend and finds space well between the lines, while centre-back Abdennour can be dangerous in the air at set-pieces.

Splitting your stakes across some of the players available at bigger odds when there is liquidity in the market would be the way to play.

Recommended Bet
Arsenal -1.0 Asian handicap @ 1.910/11