Man City v Barcelona: Visitors are worthy favourites

Close Encounter: Man City must not give Lionel Messi any space

Manuel Pellegrini is missing a key player for Tuesday's Champions League clash and Tobias Gourlay says that could give Barcelona an extra edge in a tight first leg...

Manchester City v Barcelona
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on ITV1

Match Odds
Man City 3.9n/a, Barcelona 2.111/10, The Draw 3.711/4

A year ago, Barcelona beat City 2-0 at the Etihad and 4-1 on aggregate. Lest we forget, the first leg was 0-0 until Martin Demichelis was sent off early in the second half. We could also mention that Dani Alves' injury-time winner at the Camp Nou didn't arrive until City were once again down to 10 men.

This time around the Spanish club are 2.111/10 to win the first leg again and 1.42/5 to go through to an eighth consecutive Champions League quarter final.

Luis Enrique has all of his usual starters available so his main concern is how, after 11 straight wins generously sprinkled with 42 goals in all competitions, Barcelona were rolled over by Malaga at the Camp Nou on Saturday afternoon. Perhaps everyone was already thinking about this game? 

Because there's certainly food for thought: since Pep Guardiola took charge of the first team in 2008 the Catalans are only W3-D5-L5 away from home in the first leg of Champions League knockout ties.

With a full complement of attackers, Manuel Pellegrini's men have belted nine goals in their last two outings.

Unlike Saturday's 5-0 home win over Newcastle, however, Yaya Toure is suspended on Tuesday. While the ex-Barca midfielder was away at the Africa Cup on Nations recently, City were not nearly so devastating, winning only 1/6 games.

Worse, the Citizens have managed just one clean sheet in 13 Champions League games at the Etihad (W5-D5-L3) and that was against a Bayern Munich side with nothing to play for. 

Last year Barcelona managed just a single goal in more than two hours of football against City teams with 11 men, but a hard-fought away win once again looks the most likely result.

Over / Under Goals

With Man City's dismal defensive record in European games at the Etihad, 13/13 there have gone Over 1.5 Goals.

Somehow, 6/13 have actually stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is available at 2.245/4.

There's more numerical support for a low scorer: 7/13 of Barca's first-leg away games have ended with Under 2.5 Goals, including four of the last six.

Under 2.5 Goals was also the right bet in 3/3 of City's Premier League home games with the teams currently alongside them in the top four and 3/4 of Barca's trips to La Liga's top seven.

For this game, it's plausible that Pellegrini will change tactics from the group matches that dominate City's European record. Rather than going all out to win - as he has done in a series of tough groups in which points have been hard to come by on the road - he might settle for a draw, especially a low-scoring one.

City's success with 11 men in stifling the same opponents last season should also encourage him towards a more conservative approach.

This approach is quite common among the underdogs who usually have to host the first legs of Champions League Last 16 and helps explain why 56/92 such games (61%) have finished with Under 2.5 Goals since the competition moved to its current format in 2003/04.

Best Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.245/4