Spurs v Fiorentina: In-form sides could conjure up a cracker

Spurs star Harry Kane has enjoyed the Europa League

Spurs and Fiorentina do battle for the very first time in the Europa League this week, and Kevin Hatchard's expecting fireworks at White Hart Lane...

Tottenham v Fiorentina
Thursday February 19, 20:05
Live on BT Sport 2

This is a mouth-watering clash between two sides who have never met before in continental competition. Both are in with a shout of qualifying for next season's Champions League, both are still on course for domestic cup success (Spurs have reached the Capital One Cup final, Fiorentina the Coppa Italia semis), and both have plenty of attacking talent.

Spurs have had a topsy-turvy fortnight. The ecstasy of coming from behind to beat bitter rivals Arsenal was swiftly followed by the agony of a dramatic 3-2 defeat at Champions League qualification rivals Liverpool.

This inconsistency is slowly being eradicated under Mauricio Pochettino, but it is only the Argentinean coach's first season, and as such cracks will appear from time to time. Dips in performance are to be expected when fielding so many young players - eight of the ten outfield players that started for Tottenham at Anfield are 24-years-old or younger.

Tottenham qualified for the last 32 handily enough, although they had a scare or two along the way. They failed to beat group winners Besiktas home or away, and they weren't convincing in any of their three away matches. There were glimpses of what's possible in the 5-1 thrashing of Asteras Tripolis, but Spurs are still waiting to stamp their authority on the competition.

It won't surprise you to know that living Roy of the Rovers remake Harry Kane has managed to make his mark on the tournament. If you count the qualifiers against AEL, the 21-year-old goal factory has hit the net seven times already. He is understandably the 2.021/1 favourite in the To Score market, and that seems a fair price.

Fiorentina finished top of their group, and are unbeaten in their last nine Europa League away games. Coach Vincenzo Montella is a rising star, and if he gets La Viola into the Champions League for next season or wins a trophy, even bigger clubs will come calling.

Although the loss of Colombian winger Juan Cuadrado to Chelsea in January was a huge blow, his replacement Mo Salah seems to have settled in well. He scored a goal and set up another in the weekend's win at Sassuolo, and if he gets a regular run in the side, I think he could return to his best form. The oft-injured and oft-criticised Mario Gomez is finally showing signs of life - the burly striker has netted five goals in his last six appearances.

I can see why some people think this could be a cagey affair, especially if the Italian side grab the first goal, but I think this first leg could open up. The crowd will be raucous, and Pochettino's ferocious pressing style could be deployed to throw Fiorentina out of their rhythm.

Fiorentina have scored at least once in each of their last eight matches, but they have only kept one clean sheet during that sequence. It's also worth noting that four of their six group games featured three goals or more. If you look at Fiorentina's last 20 matches in all competitions, 12 of them have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet pay out.

Bearing in mind Spurs have struggled a bit on the road in this competition, Pochettino must feel his side has to build a lead at White Hart Lane, so I expect Spurs to play on the front foot without being reckless. Eight of Spurs' last nine games have contained at least three goals, and if you stretch back further, you see the same is true of 15 of their last 20 outings. Spurs also have all of their key players fit and raring to go.

I don't think Spurs are capable of playing safety-first football, so Over 2.5 Goals looks a good price to me at 2.01/1. As for backing the home win at 2.186/5, the opposition are just too accomplished and dangerous to make that an attractive bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.01/1

2014/15 Europa League P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 50

Points Returned: 56.04

P/L: +6.04 points