Premier League Stats Review: Underrated Stoke to continue rise with back-to-back victories

Hughes has made steady progress with Stoke since November

Andrew Atherley rates Stoke a good bet against Hull on Saturday and Everton on Wednesday...

At first glance Stoke's form figures look middle of the road, as befits a team in 10th place caught in that twilight zone between the battle for European qualification and the relegation scrap. There seems nothing much to get excited about either way.

Delve a little deeper, however, and there is a more compelling case that Mark Hughes has a team on the up - and well worth a bet in this week's back-to-back home games against Hull and Everton.

The problem with Stoke was that they had a slow start to the season, which kept them near the bottom for longer than expected and has remained a drag on their overall form figures.

But the first 10 games of Stoke's season increasingly look like a blip, out of step with their overall form line in 2014 and the good form they have brought into the first two months of the new year.

From January 1 last year to the end of the season, Stoke ranked eighth in the Premier League with an average of 1.53 points per game - better than any team outside the overall top seven.

That raised hopes of a good start to the 2014-15 season, but it didn't happen. In the first 10 games, Stoke's points average slipped to 1.2 per game. Since then, however, it has been 1.5 points per game - virtually the same as it was for the last four and a half months of last season.

It is interesting to make a comparison with Southampton. Whereas the fast-starting Saints grabbed the attention early in the season by taking a lofty position in the table, Stoke lagged well behind in those first 10 games. By that point, and probably even now, most punters would have Southampton tagged as a better team than Stoke.

Yet in the subsequent 16 games, there has been nothing between Southampton and Stoke in terms of points - both have 24, putting them seventh and eighth in the form table over that period. The only sides above them in that form table are the Premier League's big six.

The general perception would still be that Southampton are a better side than Stoke - and the overall table supports that view - but the difference between them has shrunk considerably in the past three months.

From an image point of view, the difference seems much greater because Southampton made their biggest improvement in a highly visible manner at the start of the season, whereas Stoke's progress has come under the cover of their earlier struggles.

It is significant that most of Stoke's mid-season improvement has come against bottom-half teams, given that both of this week's visitors to the Britannia stadium fall into that category (Everton are currently 12th and Hull 15th).

Hughes' side are unbeaten in their last seven games against bottom-half opponents, with an overall record of W5 D2 L0. That kind of form is more readily associated with one of the big six and, while Stoke could not claim to be that good overall, it is worth making the comparison again with Southampton (whose record is W5 D1 L1 in their last seven games against bottom-half opposition).

On that basis Stoke look overpriced at 2.01/1 at home to Hull on Saturday. Three points from that match is likely to shrink Stoke's odds for next Wednesday's home game with Everton but they still look likely to be an attractive 2.55n/a or thereabouts.

Recommended Bets
Back Stoke to beat Hull at 2.01/1 (1pt)
Back Stoke to beat Everton at 2.55n/a (1pt)

2014/15 P/L

Staked: 61 pts
Returned: 62.07 pts
P/L: +1.07 pts