среда, 25 февраля 2015 г.

Premier League: Leicester and Sunderland bosses going nowhere

There would be little sense in Leicester sacking Nigel Pearson now

The odds on no more Premier League managers being sacked in 2014/15 are huge, insists Michael Lintorn...

There have been five Premier League managerial changes in the past two months - enough perhaps to make you forget that, until that point, this threatened to be one of the serenest campaigns ever, with no chairman giving into the persistent temptation until after Christmas.

Thankfully, a fortnight has passed without a sacking now and there shouldn't be another one until the end of the season, despite large odds of 6.86/1 that every current tactician clings on until matchday 38 suggesting otherwise.

The numbers regarding how clubs changing coaches in the closing months fare indicate that such desperation is rarely rewarded. The talent pool is shallower than ever too, which is why the latest three appointments - John Carver, Chris Ramsey and Tim Sherwood - had a combined five months of Premier League managerial experience when hired.

You can also scrutinise the three bosses whose prospects of being dismissed by May 24 are judged to be stronger than those of everyone keeping their job is and construct convincing cases for none of them going.

The 2.8415/8 frontrunner is Nigel Pearson, but the opportunity for Leicester to axe their Championship title-lifting chief came and passed on February 8, which was when Gary Lineker claimed that he was sacked by one decision-maker then swiftly reinstated by another.

Leicester stayed loyal during a 13-match league winless streak in 2014 and a recent run of four straight defeats. At the risk of tempting fate for the Foxes, surely their situation can't get significantly worse than it was in those periods?

It is a similar story with 4.1n/a second favourite Gus Poyet, who has survived months of needless rows with supporters, uninspiring football and hardly ever winning, with a sequence of just one league loss in four ensuring that they haven't dipped into the relegation zone.

The Black Cats will be wary of tinkering due to their previous disastrous attempt at a March quick fix. Though Paolo Di Canio succeeded in keeping them up, it was a costly experiment, particularly as they rebuilt the squad for the Italian that summer, only to sack him in September.

The arguments as to why West Ham's criticism-sponge Sam Allardyce isn't in the immediate danger that his 5.14/1 price implies have been covered at length elsewhere on Betting.Betfair.

However, the basics are that he has taken anticipated strugglers to eighth place, practically safe from relegation in February, and his seniors David Sullivan and David Gold are resistant to mid-season dugout reshuffling.

Barring a left-field dismissal or unexpected job swap, the incumbent 20 should stay the course.

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