Sean Calvert: My Indian Wells 2015 betting guide

Isner is often all-smiles at Indian Wells

Often termed as 'the fifth major', the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells is a matter of weeks away and Sean Calvert has trawled the stats to reveal who to back and who to avoid in the California desert...

The ATP World Tour takes a break for Davis Cup duty in a couple of weeks' time and after that the players head to the USA for a month of Masters 1000 tennis in March.

First up from March 12 is the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California, where the thin air allows the balls to fly, but the surface is gritty and slow and it plays almost like a clay court at times in the desert at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

Hence Rafael Nadal has done well there over the years, compiling a 41-7 record, while Novak Djokovic has a very good 36-6 mark at Indian Wells and Roger Federer has four titles to his name here.

But dig a little deeper and it's fairly easy to find out who the players to watch and who are the ones to avoid at Indian Wells, with some surprising results.

Andy Murray, for example, has never won Indian Wells and made the final just once in his nine attempts, with some of the Scot's more memorable losses coming here after an Australian Open hangover.

Donald Young and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez have both beaten Murray here and he hasn't made it past the last eight since 2009.

The first name to look for when the prices come out is John Isner, who always give you a run for your money at a big price here and made the semis last year and the final in 2012.

The high bounce and thin air combine to make Isner's serve almost impossible to return here and he's never been beaten at Indian Wells by a player who at some point in their career hasn't been top-five.

Indeed, for the last five years straight, Isner has lost to either a current or former world number one and a good draw should see the American go far, despite his current poor form. Last year he was a 160.0159/1 shot to win it and expect something similar this year.

Fellow tall, big server, Kevin Anderson has made the quarters for the last two years here and beaten the likes of Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer.

But the big guys don't always perform here, with a flatter server like Jerzy Janowicz having only ever won one match here and Ivo Karlovic has made it past the last-64 only once since 2009.

Vasek Pospisil has never won a match here in three tries and is yet to win as much as a set at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, while the all-court game of Radek Stepanek has failed too, with just three wins and 11 losses for the veteran Czech.

Alex Dolgopolov beat Nadal and Raonic here last year en route to the semis and if he overcomes recent injury problems and gets matches under his belt the Ukrainian could be an interesting long shot.

Those who have never made it past the quarter finals here in their career include Wawrinka, Milos Raonic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, Tommy Robredo and Tommy Haas.

Mikhail Youzhny hasn't been past the last-16 here since 2004, while Grigor Dimitrov is yet to even visit the last-16 at Indian Wells and US Open champ Marin Cilic has never made the quarter finals here.

Feli Lopez has only once made the last-16 in 12 tries, but is still eclipsed by Gael Monfils, who has won one match here since 2006 and has a 3-7 record, with two of those wins coming against the long-retired Jeff Morrison.

Fellow Frenchman Jeremy Chardy hasn't beaten a top-60 ranked opponent here since 2009, while Andreas Seppi has lost in round one seven times in his career.

Benjamin Becker has a 1-6 record at Indian Wells, while Adrian Mannarino is yet to win a match at the tournament and Marcel Granollers has won just once at the venue.

The wind, high bounce and gritty surface make it tricky to hit too many winners here and the courts do take Rafa's top spin very well, but other clay courters haven't had as much success here, with David Ferrer having made the last eight just once in 11 tries and none since 2007.

It's a conundrum indeed, but perhaps one thing to bear in mind is that the only player never ranked world number one to have won this since the year 2000 was Ivan Ljubicic in 2010.

Following directly on from Indian Wells is Miami and I'll be focusing on that very different tournament in next week's column.