European Betting Pointers: Paderborn looking for damage limitation against Bayern

"Yes, we've got Paderborn next!"

After successfully predicting a heavy win for Barcelona and a goalfest between Leverkusen and Wolfsburg last week, Louis Massarella turns his attentions to teams who have been overachieving in recent seasons and wonders if it can continue...

Toulouse to lose at PSG? Not necessarily

With Lens and Metz adrift at the bottom of Ligue Un, there are now several teams left fighting to avoid the third relegation spot. The most surprising of these is Toulouse, who have finished in the top half of the table on a limited budget for the last four seasons. But their policy of selling their best players - many of them products of their fertile youth system - and trying to find rough diamonds elsewhere finally seems to have caught up with Alain Casanova's side.

Two wins from their last three games has stopped the rot somewhat, leaving them one place above the drop zone. A trip to Paris would normally serve as a reality check, but PSG have stuttered recently, drawing their last two games, including letting a two-goal lead slip against struggling Caen at home last week. With Toulouse earning a point against the champions at home in September, it's tempting to go for the same again, particularly at 6.86/1.

David host Goliath in Bundesliga

There's a feast of fascinating fixtures in the Bundesliga this week, kicking off with a relegation six-pointer between Stuttgart and Dortmund on Friday night. A day later, Paderborn face Mission: Impossible at home to Bayern Munich. The minnows were relegation certainties according to most experts, but started the season with a bang, briefly going top of the table. Until last week's win against Hannover, though, they hadn't won in 10, dropping like a stone towards the trap door.

Even the romantic in us can't see a positive result against Bayern, however, who have just put eight past Hamburg. In fact, the Paderborn's only hope, it seems, is that Bayern are tired from their Champions League trip to Lviv (where Shakhtar Donetsk are being forced to play their home games due to the unrest in Ukraine). With this in mind, Paderborn might at least hope to keep the score down, so take a chance on Under 2.5 goals @ 2.9215/8.

Woe de Cologne

One place above Paderborn are fellow promoted team Cologne. On the face of it, they're sitting comfortably in mid-table, but it's so tight at the bottom of the Bundesliga that nobody in the top half is safe. While coach Peter Stoger is an entertaining character, his team have become anything but, with just one win at home all campaign and a goal-shy attack. Although there are limited odds for relegation at this time of the season, it's a market worth keeping an eye on, with Cologne among those in danger.

Lighthouse family fighting for fourth

Not long ago, Genoa and Sampdoria were in the hunt for Serie A's third and final Champions League spot, but fitful form from both since December has left them fighting for fourth place along with Lazio and Fiorentina. That's still incentive enough to win this week's Derby della Lanterna, although calling this one is particularly tough. The teams share a stadium so home and away form is hardly relevant (this is officially Samp's home game, for the record).

Genoa score and concede marginally more and have the better form, winning their last two games. Expect a cagey opening, any of the half-time draw options are worth considering.

Just who is Paco Jemez?

That will be the question on the lips of every Brentford fan this week, after the Rayo Vallecano coach was heavily tipped to take charge of the English Championship high-flyers at the end of the season. Well, the man from Gran Canaria is known for his all-out attacking approach which has had the Madrid minnows punching well above their weight since Paco took charge in 2012. They've drawn just two games all season, have a -14 goal difference, but - after a recent dip - still find themselves safely in mid-table.

For now. They're also much better away from home this season, so odds of 5.14/1 for a win at Athletic Bilbao, who have won just once in the league since December and have a Europe League game in midweek, looks excellent value.