вторник, 17 февраля 2015 г.

Champions League Betting Tips: Three key tactical battles for the last 16 fixtures

Gareth Bale has been the subject of criticism from the stands and in the press but can he play a key role on Wednesday night

Europe's top club competition returns this week with the first of the last 16 knockout fixtures. Paul Wilkes takes a look at three of the most intriguing battles from three of the biggest games...

David Luiz v Diego Costa
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on ITV

All eyes will be upon David Luiz as he welcomes his old club to the Parc de Princes. The centre-back was a divisive character in his time at Stamford Bridge, although his footballing ability is undeniable. 

Chelsea will feel they can capitalise on a weakened home defence, however, with both right-backs Marquinhos and Serge Aurier leaving the field early against Caen on Saturday. 

Diego Costa has the strength and power to disrupt Luiz, while his movement may drag the defender away from the back four, leaving space in-behind for compatriots Oscar and Willian to exploit. 

It will require a disciplined performance from Luiz, which won't be easy as he will be keen to put on a show against his former employers. He must realise that he will impress observers by maintaining concentration and utilising all his efforts into the defensive element of his game.

He averages 2.3 interceptions per game domestically and 3 in Europe, with less than 2 tackles each match across both competitions. As he's unlikely to muscle Costa off the ball, it's imperative that he reads the through balls from the midfield to the forward. 

In fairness to Luiz, he does look more solid when coupled with Thiago Silva, thanks to his compatriot's organisational skills. It's illustrative that Silva was missing through suspension when Brazil were thrashed by Germany in the World Cup semi-final last summer. 

They have eight clean sheets in 13 matches as a pairing in Ligue 1 and the Champions League, although they have conceded four against Bastia and three against Barcelona. 

This will likely improve as they generate a greater understanding, while injury has prevented the international teammates from playing together more for PSG. 

Recommended Bet
Diego Costa to score

Alex Teixeira v Xabi Alonso
Tuesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 1

The Ukrainian league doesn't resume from their winter break until the end of February, which surely hampers Shakhtar Donetsk in one way or another, when they are forced into competitive action early.

Shakhtar scored 15 goals in the group stage, but as 13 of them came against BATE Borisov the figure is a little misleading. Alex Teixeira scored twice in those fixtures and he also netted against Porto. 

Teixeira is one of 10 Brazilians in the Shakhtar squad and operating behind striker Luiz Adriano, he can be difficult to pick up. He floats between the lines, but with only 0.7 key passes per game in this season's competition it's his balls in-behind the full-backs that cause the greatest damage. 

In the two matches with Porto, Teixeira made seven tackles, which is a particularly high amount for such an advanced player. This appears to have been a direct instruction from manager Mircea Lucescu, as he made no other tackles in the team's other four games. 

Teixeira's ability to shut down the opposition high up the pitch, will be important in trying to stop the dominance of Xabi Alonso in possession. The Spaniard averages more passes than any other player in the Champions League and in his deep-lying playmaker role he dictates the pace of Bayern Munich's games. 

Alonso is just as adept without the ball, with 1.6 tackles and 2.4 interceptions, due to his superb positioning. The battle between the two players will be fascinating, but the former Liverpool midfielder's experience will likely show. 

He missed the 8-0 destruction of Hamburg on the weekend, with a thigh injury, but is expected to travel to the Ukraine. It was an important display, after the Bundesliga leaders lost against Wolfsburg and drew with Schalke in the last fortnight. 

While that Bundesliga result is eye-catching I don't expect a heavy win for Bayern. They have been a different proposition on the road in recent weeks, as they have scored two or less goals in five out of their last six away matches. 

Recommended Bet
Back Uunder 2.5 Goals @ 2.26/5

Matija Nastasic v Gareth Bale
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 5

Schalke's defence has improved since Roberto Di Matteo switched to the use of a back three. The German side had conceded 15 goals in 11 league matches before the defensive adjustment and only seven goals in the nine games after. 

This is all the more impressive when you consider they have been forced into using three different goalkeepers. Timon Wellenreuther is only 19-years-old, but he won't be fazed by the arrival of Real Madrid having made his first-team debut against Bayern Munich at Allianz arena only a fortnight ago. 

On the left of the three-man defence is Manchester City's on-loan Matija Nastasic and the 21-year-old is beginning to show the promise that saw him initially move to the Etihad. The team has conceded only two goals in the four matches that Nastasic has played and one of them was set-piece from Bayern. 

He will certainly have his work cut out against Gareth Bale, although he has already shown his capability against another inverted-winger in Arjen Robben. The Dutchman may have scored in that match, but it was from a header directly from a corner on the opposite side. 

Bale has faced heavy criticism in recent weeks from both a section of supporters at the Bernabeu and the Spanish media. Los Blancos have failed to convince since the start of the calendar year, even though Bale's problems have been overstated. 

The Welshman still managed three goals and three assists in January, and has been instrumental in the team's results. Like Robben, Bale may need to drop deeper to pick up the ball, as wing-back Christian Fuchs will probably double up on him. 

Recommended Bet
Back Gareth Bale To Score @ 2.111/10  

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