This guy looks like fun, but not as much fun as Nacional v Estoril will be
Kevin Hatchard's back to take us around the world, and we're starting the week in Portugal.
Nacional v Madeira
Monday February 16, 20:00
Live on Betfair Live Video
There was a military coup of sorts for our friend Tobias Gourlay yesterday, as Polish army team Slask Wroclaw helped him to a winner in the Both Teams to Score market. Stand down, soldier, you are dismissed for the next seven days.
We're starting our week in Portugal with a Primeira Liga clash between mid-table dwellers Nacional and Estoril. Oi, you at the back, stop yawning. This one might be more entertaining than you think, and we can always buy some local Madeira cake to munch if the game gets dull.
The market is expecting a sterile affair, with Over 2.5 Goals trading at 2.427/5, but recent statistics suggest that won't be the case. The two teams have done battle four times in the top flight in the last two years, and three of those games have featured three goals or more.
It's also worth noting that Madeiran outfit Nacional have been no strangers to drama and excitement of late. Their last six league games have contained at least three goals, and if you stretch back a bit further you see that Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in nine of their last 11 league outings.
Estoril have also seen a fair few goals fly in lately, especially on the road. Jose Couceiro's Canaries (good name for a band, that) have seen their last four away games feature three goals or more. In all venues and competitions, an overs bet has landed in five of Estoril's last eight outings.
I understand why overs is so chunky - Nacional have only conceded seven goals at home, while Estoril have only netted 11 away, but I hope I've laid out enough evidence to show you that a price of 2.427/5 is one we shouldn't walk away from.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.427/5
2015 P/L (1 pt per bet)
Points Staked: 21
Points Returned: 17.24
P/L: -3.76 points
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