понедельник, 2 февраля 2015 г.

In-play Football Tips: Red card to appear late in Celtic v Rangers

After a shaky start, Celtic are in contention for four trophies

Michael Lintorn studies in-play trends for Celtic v Rangers, Augsburg v Hoffenheim and Monaco v Lyon...

Celtic v Rangers
Sunday, 13:30
Live on BBC One Scotland

Match Odds: Celtic 1.351/3, Rangers 10.5n/a, The Draw 5.95/1

It has been ages since such a claim was viable but Scotland quite possibly hosts the most intriguing of all Sunday's contests as Old Firm juggernauts Celtic and Rangers are reunited for the first time in almost three years in the League Cup semi-finals. A clash with Dundee United awaits the winners.

One of the first things you think of when it comes to this fixture is the sendings off: there have been eight in nine derbies. However, three of the most recent four came very late - in the 75th minute or beyond - creating interesting in-play possibilities, for instance holding out for bigger odds than the current price of 2.427/5, or even attempting a pre-match lay in the market with a view to Cashing Out.

Augsburg v Hoffenheim
Sunday, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Augsburg 2.427/5, Hoffenheim 3.211/5, The Draw 3.55n/a

The Bundesliga is back, and the embarrassing underperformance of Borussia Dortmund, coupled with the continuing struggles of other historic forces like Hamburg, Werder Bremen and Stuttgart has invited Augsburg and Hoffenheim to mount Champions League challenges. Augsburg will go joint-third if they win this game, while Hoffenheim would move within a point of the top four.

The trend to be aware of in this encounter is that Augsburg have given up the opening goal in five successive Bundesliga matches. Whenever they have conjured a response by the 55th minute, they have gone on to win - they haven't drawn all season - yet if they don't net by then, they lose to nil.

Monaco v Lyon
Sunday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

Match Odds: Monaco 2.226/5, Lyon 3.8514/5, The Draw 3.3512/5

Ligue 1 was supposed to lose any semblance of competitiveness when Paris St-Germain were taken over by wealthy Qatari investors in 2011, with the outcome of title races expected to be more predictable than during Lyon's seven-year domination from 2001 to 2008.

Yet three years on from Montpellier's sensational upset, a gripping three-team fight has developed, and Lyon have the opportunity to reassert a four-point advantage over Marseille and Paris St-Germain if they do what nobody has done since September and win away to Monaco.

A run of seven straight league victories implies a better chance than their odds of 3.8514/5 do, and they haven't lost a league game that they led since August. Indeed, the past five times that they have fired first - always by the 40th minute and four times by Alexandre Lacazette - they have won to nil.

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