The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Man City

Pablo Zabaleta will have a tough evening against Eden Hazard

Saturday's final game is one of the biggest of the season, as Jose Mourinho and Manuel Pellegrini do battle at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox looks at their selection decisions, while Alan Thompson has the betting angle.

Chelsea v Manchester City
Saturday 17:30, Sky Sports 1.
Match Odds: Chelsea 2.1411/10, Man City 3.8514/5, The Draw 3.613/5.

We're still in January, yet this feels like the most important fixture of the season in terms of determining the destination of the title. Chelsea have a comfortable five-point cushion over Manchester City, but a win for the away side and the title race is blown wide open.

The danger, however, is that both teams might settle for a point. Chelsea are happy with a five-point gap, while Manchester City might feel they have a better chance of catching Chelsea by cutting their losses here, and concentrating on picking up points elsewhere. This is likely to be a tight, tense and tactical game.

Both sides could be missing key attacking weapons. For Chelsea, Jose Mourinho seems set to be without Diego Costa after his stamp in Chelsea's midweek Capital One Cup game, and Cesc Fabregas could also miss out with a hamstring strain. This could influence his tactics significantly, and while Didier Drogba can play upfront without too much change in Chelsea's shape, Fabregas will probably be replaced by a more functional player.

Mourinho praised Ramires heavily in midweek, and the Brazilian could come into the side and sit alongside Nemanja Matic. Alternatively, John Obi Mikel could do a similar job: Mourinho will be determined not to let David Silva find space between the lines, so expect a relatively structured, solid and compact Chelsea team.

Manchester City are still without Yaya Toure, which means Fernandinho should play a more advanced role than he's accustomed to, storming forward to link up with Silva. Samir Nasri is also a big loss, though James Milner was outstanding in the 1-1 draw between the sides earlier in the season. Pellegrini could even spring a controversial surprise by including ex-Chelsea legend Frank Lampard in midfield.

There are three particularly interesting areas to focus on here. The first is a head-to-head clash between Eden Hazard and Pablo Zabaleta. Hazard has given Zabaleta considerable problems when they've faced one another in the Premier League - the Argentine gets too tight, and can't cope with Hazard's incredible turn of speed.

With Vincent Kompany also regularly moving too high up the pitch to close down opponents, quick one-twos could see Hazard skip in behind. I fancy Zabaleta to be shown a card, and will back as low at 3.412/5 here.

The second area involves City playing through-balls for Sergio Aguero, whose pace will test John Terry and Gary Cahill. However, City will need to get players into dangerous positions between the lines to play the passes - which means Silva will be crucial. The Spaniard is also excellent at creating space for teammates in that zone, so don't be surprised if Milner or Fernandinho move into dangerous positions unexpectedly, and try to thread passes through to Aguero.

The third key consideration is Chelsea's attacking set-pieces, where they could have a significant height advantage over Manchester City. They'll play at least five excellent headers of the ball, and City are likely to lack significant height - although Pellegrini will probably select Aleksandar Kolarov, and perhaps even Lampard, to guard against his players being exposed in these situations.

Nevertheless, in a tight game I think set-pieces could be crucial, and I'll back Terry to open the scoring at 40.039/1 - he's often been a real threat this season. Matic, Cahill, Branislav Ivanovic and Drogba could also be dangerous.

Overall, I'm not sure we should be expecting an open, exciting game between these two sides - with the likes of Fernando, Fernandinho, Ramires, Matic and Milner in the midfield zone, it might be something of a scrap with only flashes of brilliance from the likes of Hazard, Oscar and Silva.

A draw suits Chelsea, and I'm always confident Mourinho knows how to set his team up to win a point.

Recommended Bets
Back Zabaleta to be shown a card at 3.412/5
Back Terry at first goalscorer at 40.039/1

The Betfair Trader's View: Alan Thompson

A title decider in January? I’m not sure I would go that far but a win for Chelsea will produce an eight point gap between these two and the Blues will be very, very short in the Premier League Winners market if they do beat City. Chelsea booked their place in the Capital One Cup final this week after a battling 120 minutes of midweek action, only time will tell if that win has come at any cost, with the possible suspension of Diego Costa for three games and potentially picking up injuries to the likes of Branislav Ivanovic, Filipe Luis and Cesc Fabregas.

Of course, Jose Mourinho’s side recently suffered an embarrassing FA Cup exit at home to Bradford City and they have had a few blemishes recently dropping league points AWAY at Newcastle, Southampton and Tottenham, the key thing is the league blemishes were all on the road! At Stamford Bridge, the Blues have conceded three goals this campaign, keeping five clean sheets in a row and still have a 100% win rate with 10 league wins from 10 fixtures in front of their own fans.

City have their own problems, winning just one of their last four league outings and also suffering an early, embarrassing FA Cup exit at home against Middlesborough. Yaya Toure and new signing Wilfried Bony are still in Africa, as Ivory Coast have progressed through the group stages of the Africa Cup of Nations and it will be interesting to see if Frank Lampard lines up against his former club!

I am sure neither of these sides would have wanted to come into this massive showdown under these conditions and both managers look like going into it without key players so they have ready-made excuses if they lose it. Which is why, I think avoiding defeat may be foremost in both their minds and the draw for me at 3.55 makes the most appeal.