Against All Odds: Barcelona to let down favourite backers

Luis Enrique is under pressure to deliver results

The big match in La Liga comes from the Nou Camp this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that Villarreal can spring a surprise and thwart Barcelona's title challenge.

Barcelona v Villarreal
Sunday February 1, 20:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports 5

Since suffering a 1-0 defeat at Real Sociedad, Barcelona have gone on to win their next seven matches, by an aggregate scoreline of 26-3. Only three of those were league games though so they still trail leaders, Real Madrid, by four points. That might not seem like a lot, but given that Real have won 17 of 20, it's not like they are going to drop too many more points in the second half of the campaign.

It's never easy to find reasons for opposing the Catalan giants, but betting is all about value and Luis Enrique's side are a very short price. They were even shorter when they hosted Celta Vigo back in November and that ended in a shock 1-0 win for the visitors. I would also argue that despite a forward line of Messi, Neymar and Suarez, Barca are a waning force who don't possess the fear factor they once did.

Despite all that, there are only a handful of teams I would tip to get a result against them, and one of those is this evening's opponents. The Yellow Submarine are enjoying a renaissance since their promotion back to the top flight in 2013. A top six finish last year saw them qualify for Europe and they will be hopeful of winning their three-way battle with Sevilla and Valencia to finish fourth this season.

Marcelino's men are flying right now as a 1-0 win at Getafe on Thursday was their fourth win to nil in a row, and it extended their unbeaten run to 18 games in all competitions. While the critics will argue that they have faced some sub-standard opposition during that period, they travelled to Vicente Caldern and beat reigning champions, Atletico Madrid, 1-0.

Before you go putting Barcelona into your Sunday accumulators without giving it much thought, please consider the above. I certainly won't be a backer, and yes, while they might well win, they definitely aren't value. That's why, at around the 1.241/4 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Barcelona v Villarreal @ 1.241/4

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 30 pts
Returned: 22.18 pts
P/L: - 7.82 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)