Football Bet of the Day: Tel Aviv tedium should be the route to profit

It's derby day in Israel

Kevin Hatchard's dusted off his passport, and he's taking us to Israel to kick off the week.

Maccabi Tel Aviv v Hapoel Tel Aviv
Monday February 2, 18:55

The Jim vs Quique show wasn't quite as exciting as Tobias had hoped yesterday, as a 1-0 win for Almeria over Getafe blew the BTTS bet. TG deserves a rest, so I'll take up the globetrotting reins.

We're off to Israel, (there won't be many gags today - a writer needs to know when the subject matter's too hot to handle) because there's a Tel Aviv derby to look forward to. Leaders Maccabi Tel Aviv are taking on struggling Hapoel Tel Aviv, and we're hoping the match won't be too entertaining.

Former Liverpool coach Pako Ayestaran - once a disciple of the relentlessly methodical Rafa Benitez - is doing a superb job with the table-topping Yellows. They have the best attack in the division (43 goals in 19 games) and the best defence (just 13 goals conceded), but they are only a point clear at the top. A win this evening would put clear daylight between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ironi Kiryat Shmona at the top.

Maccabi Tel Aviv are particularly strong at home. They have won seven and drawn two of their league games at the Bloomfield Stadium, and they've only conceded five goals on home turf. They are defending superbly well in all settings at the moment - they have kept six consecutive clean sheets in the league, and haven't let a goal in since mid-December.

So can Hapoel cause an upset, or even score a goal? Well, their recent form suggests an away win (of sorts, they share the same ground) is unlikely. The Red Demons have won just one of their last ten league games, and they are fourth-from-bottom. Bearing in mind that Hapoel finished fourth last term, it's been something of a fall from grace.

Maccabi are rightly the favourites to win at 1.4840/85, especially as they have won three of their last four encounters with their local rivals. The price is a bit skinny for our tastes, but I am intrigued by the 2.0811/10 on offer for Under 2.5 Goals.

Hapoel's last six games have all featured fewer than three goals, and eight of the last 12 derbies between these old foes have gone the same way, including a goalless draw in November. We've established that Hapoel are unlikely to score, but they haven't conceded three goals in a game since the first week of December.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.0811/10

2015 P/L (1pt per bet)

Points Staked: 14

Points Returned: 10.97

P/L: -3.03 points