Against All Odds: The return of the Copa Libertadores

The biggest competition in South American football is back

The Copa Libertadores gets underway tonight and Paul Robinson is taking The Strongest to avoid defeat at M Morelia.

M Morelia v The Strongest
Wednesday February 4, 02:30 GMT
Available on Betfair Live Video  

This is the first leg of a first round Copa Libertadores clash with the winner going through to the group stage. Monarcas Morelia were knocked out in this phase of the competition last year as after winning the first leg 2-1, they were beaten in Colombia by Santa Fe, 1-0, to exit on away goals.

I don't see them progressing this time either, but not only that, I don't envisage them winning the home match. Alfredo Tena's side have started the Liga MX season in abysmal form and they haven't been playing too well for a while. 

This term it's two points from a possible 12 for 'La Monarqua' and they finished rock bottom of the Apertura prior to that after winning only two of 17 matches. 

The Strongest, on the other hand, come into this fixture having taken eight points from their first four league matches this season - winning two and drawing two. They warmed up for tonight with a 5-0 demolition of Universitario Cobija and while the Bolivian league isn't the strongest (no pun intended), confidence plays a huge part in football.

Nstor Craviotto's men have a solid recent history in the Libertadores as the La Paz based club made it through to the last 16 last year and that was after being drawn in a group with both Velez Sarsfield and Atletico PR. 

Opponents of this selection will point to the fact that The Strongest have played 19 times on the road in this competition since 2004 and they lost 18 of them. I would argue though that since 2013 they had to face Sao Paulo, Atletico Mineiro, Arsenal de Sarandi, Atletico PR, Velez, Universitario and Defensor Sporting. They are all decent outfits and in the six they lost, four of them were by a single goal.

I don't begrudge Morelia favouritism, but they are in dire form and their current price is a bit of a joke. That's why, at around the 1.584/7 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.        

Recommended Bet
Lay M Morelia v The Strongest @ 1.584/7

2015 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 32 pts
Returned: 22.18 pts
P/L: - 9.82 pts (after commission)
(2014 P/L: + 17.34 pts)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)