European Betting Pointers: Must-win Madrid derby looms for Atletico

Torres: back at Atletico, back in the goals

After predicting Wolfsburg's shock victory over Bayern Munich, Louis Massarella looks forward to a feast of fascinating fixtures, with midweek action in Spain and Germany adding to the intrigue.

PSG aim to be first Lyon tamers since November
After coming away from in-form Monaco with a 0-0 draw, Lyon would probably take the same again at home to Paris-Saint Germain - knowing it would be enough to keep them top of Ligue Un and with easier games to come, not to mention no European distractions. The stats are with the home side, too. They've won all but one of their home games in the league this season, haven't conceded a league goal in their last six games and managed to nick a point in Paris earlier this season. This is PSG, though, who have found some form of late, winning their last five games, albeit unconvincingly. A low-scoring draw is the way to go so back 0-0 and 1-1 at 109/1 and 6.86/1 respectively.

Miners aiming to make it a double
Roberto di Matteo has made an impressive start at Schalke, winning five out of seven league games and taking the Miners from 11th to joint third on points. But this week will test their Champions League credentials or otherwise with a midweek visit to Bayern Munich followed by a home game against Borussia Moenchengladbach, who sit above Schalke on goal difference. With a Bayern backlash likely after the runaway leaders' thrashing at Wolfsburg, Di Matteo's team will do well to take anything away from the Allianz Arena, so they'll be targeting all three points at the Veltins-Arena, where they've lost just once all season. Gladbach, too, are better at home, three of their four Bundesliga defeats (all since November) coming on the road, all by the odd goal. So try 2-1 10.09/1 or even 3-2 28.027/1 to the home team.

Can Zola's homecoming inspire Cagliari
Down in the Mediterranean, Di Matteo's former Chelsea team-mate Gianfranco Zola has made a welcome return to his birthplace of Sardinia as manager of Cagliari, where he ended his career as a player. The Islanders were in freefall before Zola arrived at Christmas, with leaking goals the main problem, but they've been buoyed by a couple of wins, albeit without a clean sheet in five games since the new man arrived. This weekend, they welcome a Roma side who have all but dropped out of the title race thanks to four straight draws and now have Napoli breathing down their necks in the race for second. Expect the visitors to go for broke, which should make for an entertaining game given Cagliari haven't had too many problems finding the net. Over 2.5 goals is 2.0621/20, over 3.5 3.711/4

Bundesliga's two surprise packages go head to head
"Augsburg are focused on avoiding relegation," said coach Markus Weinzierl this week, but he's kidding nobody. The Bavarians, who were only promoted to the Bundesliga in 2011, now have a very real chance of qualifying for the Champions League, and are currently locked on 30 points with Schalke and Gladbach. Not exactly the team bottom club Dortmund want to play at the moment. A draw at Leverkusen last week suggests Jurgen Klopp's men are still up for the fight, but they'll need to find some quality too - not easy when most of your best players are being linked with a move away. Incredibly, Augsburg have not drawn a single game in the league this season, but six of their eight defeats have come away, so they'll be happy to break that duck in midweek. A draw's decent value, too, at 4.77/2.

Atletico need to prove they're the Real deal
And so to what is undoubtedly the game of the week, and rarely has there been so much hanging on a Madrid derby. By the time Atletico host Real, the latter could be seven points clear of their city rivals - who play Sevilla in midweek - which means it's probably win or bust for Diego Simeone's men regarding the title race. Cristiano Ronaldo will be back for the visitors, but since last season's Champions League final, it's Atletico who have the upper hand - unbeaten in three, including a league win at the Bernebeu in September. With prodigal son, Fernando Torres, resurgent, and the Calderon likely to be rocking, we're going for a home win at inviting odds of 3.412/5.