World Cup Semi-Finals: Four flawed teams set to produce two tight games

Scolari is building a siege mentality with Brazil

The tournament exploded into life with a series of goal-heavy games but as the stakes get ever higher the goals have dried up and Jonathan Wilson fully expects that trend to continue in the semi-finals...

Perhaps we were spoiled by Spain. After a World Cup winner that played football so effective it was almost dull in the way it controlled games, we will have a winner that is seriously flawed. None of the four semi-finalists are without their flaws, none of them - yet-  playing football that will be remembered with any great fondness in years to come. 

There is, of course, still time for that to change - no side ever dominates tournaments with scintillating football from start to finish, and a good semi-final and final could change the light in which the early rounds are viewed. If the last 16 and the quarter-final are anything to go by, though, this will be a grim wrestle for the prize. The dynamic of this tournament has changed since the group stage, the free-scoring excitement of those early days replaced by tension and drama and a more defensive style of football.

Brazil, 3.8514/5 to win the World Cup, were struggling even before the loss of Neymar, who had seemed the calmest man amid the hype. There is a collective hysteria about the country - ramped up by both players and the media - with everybody waiting to burst into tears at any moment, whether over the anthem, a goal, a save or the final whistle. Nonsense is being spouted as truth and believed, no line more silly than Luiz Felipe Scolari's ludicrous claim that nobody expected Brazil to get out of the group.

The frenzy reached its apogee when Neymar was injured. As grief - and that isn't too strong a word - swept the nation, all perspective seemed to be lost. Nobody seemed prepared to accept that Brazil's systematic fouling, their targeting of James Rodriguez - two clattering fouls in the first 15 minutes of each half on him made Brazil's plan clear - couple with weak refereeing had created an environment in which Colombia's players felt they had to fight back. If enough players kick each other, eventually someone gets hurt.

Scolari is a master at generating a siege mentality and he has built a Brazil side that is almost too committed: the two games with the most fouls at this World Cup have been Brazil's two knockout matches. He will certainly try to use Neymar's absence as a motivational tool, but that may not be enough to compensate for the loss of their one in-form creative player.

Certainly Germany, 3.711/4 to win the World Cup, will not be intimidated by the atmosphere in Belo Horizonte or by Brazil's physicality. Jogi Low, their coach, has already called for the referee to be strong. He changed approach against France, the restoration of the Bastian Schweinsteiger and Sami Khedira to the back of midfield with Philipp Lahm going back to right-back gave them a solidity against France. Some of the fluency of the group stage was perhaps lost, but they were able to hold France with relative comfort.

That suggests a tight low-scoring game, and the same is true of the other semi-final. The Netherlands , outsiders of the remaining quartet at 5.04/1 to win the World Cup, have counter-attacked from the start of the tournament, and Argentina will presumably try to play that way, partly for fear of Arjen Robben getting a run at Jose Maria Basanta and partly because the injuries to Sergio Aguero and Angel Di Maria effectively force them to pack the side with holding midfielders. 

Enzo Perez came on for Di Maria against Belgium, but he, fine season that he had at Benfica, is a far less creative player than the Real Madrid player. That means a lot of the onus to link midfield and attack falls on Ezequiel Lavezzi, who has only just returned from injury himself and is struggling for form. Given Alejandro Sabella's instincts are conservative, he seems certain to adopt a cautious approach for the 3.613/5 World Cup favourites.

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