ATP US Open winner expected to be in top 10

ATP US Open winner expected to be in top 10

By Dan Weston Jul 28, 2014

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The Tennis betting focus now turns to the Canadian and US hard courts with players looking to get quality preparation in for the final Grand Slam of the year, the US Open. Read this ATP US Open betting preview for an insight ahead of the tournament. 

Conditions at Flushing Meadows tend to be close to average.  In 2012, the men’s event had 79.1% service holds, and this figure decreased to 76.4% in 2013.  With the ATP hard court mean fluctuating just above the 78% mark, it is clear that last year’s conditions were a little on the slow side of average.  This wouldn’t have a huge positive or negative impact on players and, a month in advance of the event, it’s unlikely court conditions will be a significant factor on an individual player’s chances.

As has been made in previous Grand Slam previews, it’s vital that players avoid early five set matches.  It was very apparent that Andy Murray – who as a top player should be best equipped to deal with this – had big issues with this against Rafael Nadal in the French Open, after several prior five set matches against Philipp Kohlschreiber and Gael Monfils.  This then extended to a very lacklustre display against Radek Stepanek in the subsequent tournament at Queens, which is a tournament that the Scotsman has traditionally performed well in.

As with the majority of men’s Grand Slam events, the five set format favours the ‘better’ player as it has lower variance than the typical ATP three set format.  Looking at the winners of the last ten years, only Juan Martin Del Potro (world ranked 6th) has won from outside the top three, and there has been no player ranked above 9th (Andy Roddick managed this in 2006) that has made the final.

Therefore our main focus when looking at contenders has to be on the top ten players and based on history, it’s highly unlikely that a player outside the top ten will make the final.

Splitting the last ten years down into two brackets (2004-2008 and 2009-2013) is very interesting – from 2004 to 2008, Roger Federer took all five titles and the Swiss legend was also runner-up in 2009.   However, he’s failed to make the final in the last four years.

Four different players have won since 2009, with the aforementioned Del Potro, Rafael Nadal (twice), Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic all claiming titles.  Djokovic has made the final in the last four years and it would be a brave man to back against the world number one achieving at least that feat again this year.

The following table illustrates the 12 month hard court statistics of the current ATP top ten as of 24th July 2014 (less the injured Del Potro):-

Player

Rank

Current Price

12 Month Hard Court Service Hold %

12 Month Hard Court Opponent Break %

12 Month Hard Court Service Hold %

Djokovic

1

2.53

89.5

33.7

123.2

Nadal

2

4.80

89.1

31.1

120.2

Federer

3

9.60

89.1

28.2

117.3

Wawrinka

4

17.70

87.1

24.5

111.6

Berdych

5

56.60

88.3

28.8

117.1

Ferrer

6

86.91

78.4

31.1

109.5

Raonic

7

34.36

91.1

16.5

107.6

Dimitrov

9

20.21

85.6

18.5

104.1

Murray

10

6.57

83.3

32.7

116.0

It is immediately apparent from the table that the top two in the world rankings and the betting market – Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal – are two best players on hard court in the last 12 months.  They have combined hold/break percentages of over 120 and this is elite level on any surface.

With supreme fitness and a superb record against top ten players on hard court (41-9 in his last 50 matches), it’s extremely difficult to see Djokovic having great difficulties against anyone but elite-level opponents.  Furthermore, it’s worth noting that the Serb has only started one match as underdog on hard court since January 2012 – in his loss against Nadal at 2.236 in last year’s US Open final.

However, there is clearly a tier of players slightly below this level with Roger Federer, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray all boasting combined hold/break stats between 116.0 and 117.3.  With the worst stats of this trio but the shortest price, and persistent doubts about his fitness, it’s very hard to make a case for Murray in the outright betting.

Roger Federer is an interesting prospect at 9.60 in the outright betting and there’s no doubt that he has upped his level in 2014 after a disappointing 2013.  On hard courts in 2013, he held 88.6% and broke 25.0%, but this has increased to 89.9% and 29.9% in 2014.  Furthermore, in 2014 he has won 86% of matches on hard court, compared to a disappointing 74% last year.

Having said this, it’s noticeable that Tomas Berdych’s hard court stats are very close to Federer’s, despite being available at a much bigger price.  The primary reason for this is the Czech’s poor record against top ten players (16-34 in his last 50 matches) and when priced as an underdog on hard court against top ten players, this record worsens to 8-28 in his career.

It’s also worth noting that both Berdych and Federer have poor long-term records against left-handers and avoiding Nadal in the draw will be key to both players’ chances.

Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka and David Ferrer have better hard court stats than the younger Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov although it’s difficult to see any of these four players featuring in the final.

Wawrinka has been in a run of mediocre form (17-8) following his first Slam victory. This includes defeats when priced below 1.20 against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (in the first round of the French Open), Tommy Haas, young prospect Dominic Thiem, and also Andrey Golubev in the Davis Cup.

Ferrer’s 2014 stats have stayed fairly constant compared to 2013 but the Spaniard – traditionally superb at picking up low level titles – has just one tournament win to his name in 2014, in Buenos Aires on clay.

This year he’s also suffered many short priced defeats, losing when priced below 1.20 against Daniel Brands, Yen-Hsun Lu, Teymuraz Gabashvili, Andrey Kuznetsov, Carlos Berlocq and Leonardo Mayer. Furthermore, winning just 16 out of his last 50 matches against top ten players on hard courts, he is another that struggles against high-level opposition.

Raonic and Dimitrov are the youngest players in the top ten and this factor, along with their recent semi-finals on the grass of Wimbledon, are likely reasons why they have market support. It will be interesting to see Raonic’s build-up to the US Open in particular, with several events in Canada, his home country.  As has been discussed in several previous articles, big servers such as Raonic tend to be hampered in Grand Slams due to accumulated fatigue, generally playing more sets and games than average.

Based on the hold/break stats and the fact that Dimitrov can boast just one quarter-final and one semi-final in Grand Slam events in his career, justifying his status as 6th favourite for the US Open will be a big ask for the 23-year-old Bulgarian.

As always, it is worth stressing that betting on ATP Grand Slams is a different proposition to normal 3-set matches.  It is vital that bettors do their research and make the necessary adjustments if they are to profit at the 2014 US Open.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

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