Don’t rule out a big-priced WTA US Open betting winner

Don’t rule out a big-priced WTA US Open betting winner

By Dan Weston Jul 28, 2014

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As is the case in other Grand Slams, the WTA US Open betting event promises to be much more open than the ATP equivalent, and a bigger priced winner, or finalist, is more likely in the women’s tournament than the men’s. This article assesses the statistics behind the main contenders for the women’s title.

Whilst the ATP event historically favours the players at the top of the betting market, this is less the case in the WTA US Open.  While Serena Williams has won the last two tournaments, defeating Victoria Azarenka in both finals, the world number one has just one runner-up spot (2011) and one other title (2008) in the last ten years.  It’s fair to say that represents a poor return for Williams given how dominant she has been statistically over the competition, and also considering it is a tournament in her home country.

Interestingly, Williams’ 2011 appearance in the final came as a 28th seed and Mary Pierce (12th seed, 2005) and Kim Clijsters (wild card, 2009) also made the final when ranked outside the top ten.

However, it could be argued that both Williams and Clijsters were top ten level in all but ranking at those times, and with 17 out of 20 finalists in the last ten years coming from inside the top 10, it’s very likely we will see the two finalists come from that ranking bracket.

Williams leads the market currently at 3.220, and this is quite a bit bigger than in recent Grand Slam tournaments, where she has started the event either odds-on, or around even money.  This reflects the decline in the 32-year-old world number one, which can be evidenced in the table below:

All Surfaces Service Hold %

Break Opponent %

Combined %

Hard Court Service Hold %

Break Opponent %

Combined %

Williams, 2013

83.5

53.4

136.9

83.6

50.9

134.5

Williams, 2014

82.7

46.3

129.0

83.2

42.4

125.6

Williams’ serve hasn’t declined much, showing a 0.8% drop across all surfaces between 2013 and 2014, and a 0.4% drop on hard court.  However, she’s broken opponents much less, doing so 7.1% less on all surfaces and 8.5% less on hard court.  These statistics show that unless she can reverse this trend, her time in the WTA stratosphere is over, and her level will be much closer to other players than in the last couple of years.

The table below illustrates the 12 month hard court stats (correct at 24th July, 2014) of the top 10 in the WTA, and several other notable players near the top of the outright betting market, currently priced at under 50.00:

Player

Rank

Current Price

12 Month Hard Court Service Hold %

12 Month Hard Court Opponent Break %

12 Month Hard Court Combined %

Williams S

1

3.22

83.2

49.1

132.3

Li

2

16.92

73.1

47.3

120.4

Halep

3

9.40

66.6

50.4

117

Kvitova

4

11.63

71.4

37.4

108.8

Radwanska A

5

27.48

69.6

48

117.6

Sharapova

6

7.17

69.1

42.3

111.4

Bouchard

7

7.99

65.6

43.7

109.3

Kerber

8

38.06

70.6

43

113.6

Jankovic

9

80.34

65.5

47.2

112.7

Azarenka

10

10.50

64.6

50.7

115.3

Ivanovic

11

38.06

70.1

42.9

113.0

Cibulkova

12

45.99

67.3

44.6

111.9

Wozniacki

13

48.62

72.7

43.6

116.3

Stosur

19

38.06

74.4

33.6

108.0

Stephens

22

38.06

66.4

36.4

102.8

Keys

27

48.62

70.3

36.5

106.8

Muguruza

28

27.48

65.6

44.1

109.7

Lisicki

30

40.69

70.8

37.2

108.0

As can be seen from the table above, Williams’ stats over the last 12 months are well above the other top WTA players.  However, her 2014 combined hold/break stats of 125.6 isn’t a huge amount better than the likes of Li, Halep, Radwanska, Azarenka and Wozniacki, who all boast combined stats of over 115.

Second in the market is Maria Sharapova.  The Russian may not be flattered by her hold/break stats with most of them coming as she made her return back from injury to the tour earlier in the season.  If she can get back to her 2012 hard court level of 73.9% holds and 49.2% breaks she will be a major contender.

Simona Halep and Eugenie Bouchard make up the list of players priced below 10.00 and it’s hard to make a case for Bouchard at these prices, given her hard court stats, even with likely improvement considered.  Certainly based on the stats above, Halep has a better chance this year, with her superb return game, breaking opponents 50.4% in the last 12 months on the surface.

Of all the other players, only Victoria Azarenka can boast that she breaks opponents over 50% on the surface but the Belarussian has been struggling with injury, playing just one match between January and June. She clearly looked far from fully fit on grass in June, losing when priced 1.368 to Camila Giorgi at Eastbourne and at 1.178 to Bojana Jovanovski at Wimbledon.  Assessing how Azarenka fares in the warm-up events is crucial.

Wimbledon Petra Kvitova and Australian Open champion Li Na are next in the betting and the statistics favour Li when comparing these two, with the Chinese player holding 1.7% more on hard court in the past 12 months and breaking 9.9% more.  Statistics show that Kvitova thrives mostly on grass and on indoor hard – the two quickest surfaces on tour – as opposed to outdoor hard.  Li will be looking to avenge a very disappointing Wimbledon, where she had a surprise 3rd round exit against Barbora Zahlavova Strycova.

Radwanska, Kerber, Jankovic, Ivanovic, Cibulkova and Wozniacki all have combined hold/break stats over 110 and form the basis of the rest of the main contenders.  As previously mentioned, Radwanska has big issues against top level players and if any of these players are to make the latter stages of the tournament, they will need to get victories over top ten players.  The following table assess the recent records of these six players against top ten players:

Vs. Top 10 – 12 Months

Last 50 Matches

Radwanska

5-11

20-30

Kerber

5-7

16-29*

Jankovic

5-10

16-34

Ivanovic

5-9

15-35

Cibulkova

5-8

19-31

Wozniacki

1-6

23-27

*Kerber has not yet played 50 matches against top 10 players

Radwanska actually has the worst record of all these players against top ten players in the last 12 months, with the exception of Caroline Wozniacki.  However, it is interesting to note that Wozniacki has the best record against top players in her last 50 matches.

With these statistics borne in mind, Angelique Kerber and Dominika Cibulkova appear less overawed against top ten opponents than the other four, and could provide options for those bettors keen to find a player with a little bigger price than the main contenders.

The WTA US Open promises to be a great tournament, with a number of young players looking to prove they belong in elite company, Azarenka and Sharapova looking to show they are at elite level after injuries and Serena Williams looking much more vulnerable here than in recent other Grand Slams.  Surface research and assessment of the warm-up events will be crucial to achieve successful betting.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

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