Premier League Relegation Betting: Saints' sales make Koeman's men the bet

Ronald Koeman has a huge job on his hands to save Saints from the drop

The ongoing fire sale at Southampton makes the south coast side a no-brainer selection in Betfair's Premier League relegation market, according to Joe Dyer, who assesses the main contenders for the drop... 

With the three promoted clubs heading the market you have to get your contrarian head on to spot the value in Betfair's Premier League relegation market.

Burnley are the shortest price of the lot at 1.674/6 with QPR a nice round 3.02/1 and Leicester 3.613/5 to back. At 3.9n/a West Brom are considered the likeliest of the established Premier League clubs to exit the top-flight with Tony Pulis' Crystal Palace 4.1n/a just shorter than 4.3100/30 Aston Villa and 4.47/2 Hull. 

Beyond that the prices get juicier - though not earth-shattering - headed by 5.79/2 Southampton, 5.85/1 Swansea, 6.25/1 West Ham and 6.611/2 Sunderland. Newcastle are the last team to trade in single figures at 9.417/2, a tick shorter than 10.5n/a Stoke.
After that you're in the land of make believe with 170.0169/1 Everton, 280.0279/1 Spurs, 480.0479/1 Manchester United and the rest all trading above 500.0499/1.    

How then should you approach this market?

You will win no prizes for putting up Burnley as a back bet and I don't know how many of you want to tie up your money in a season-long wager at 1.674/6 anyway. They probably will be relegated but many have jumped to similar assumptions about promoted clubs and had their fingers burned in the past. See Crystal Palace last time out, Swansea in 2010-11, and Hull in 2008-09 for three examples. 

Of the other sides arriving from the Championship, table-topping Leicester have only paid for one player - Argentine striker Leonardo Ulloa joining from Brighton for a reported 8m - while free transfers Marc Albrighton and Matthew Upson will add some top-flight experience. The 3.613/5 on the Foxes' relegation looks on the big side and it will almost certainly be shorter after the first five games which bring Everton, Arsenal and Manchester United to the King Power Stadium as well as trips to Chelsea and Stoke. Given those tough early games they are a potential trade, if not an outright bet.  

QPR have so far chosen to strengthen only the backline with a pair of England internationals past and present - Rio Ferdinand and Steven Caulker - in what has been a restrained summer transfer period. They look like canny signings and add to a Rangers' squad that is studded with experienced Premier League performers, though admittedly a fair few who witnessed QPR's recent relegation! If Loic Remy stays, or Charlie Austin loves the Premier League as much as the Championship, they have a great chance of staying up.

Of the teams who swerved the drop last year, I wouldn't want to oppose Palace, who loved playing for Pulis last year. Similarly FA Cup finalists Hull looked a cohesive unit under Steve Bruce. Spirit and grit should get these two through. 

Aston Villa, on the other hand, rarely appeared to have passion, organisation or belief last time out. Summer signings at Villa Park do not inspire either - Joe Cole, Kieran Richardson and Philippe Senderos did not cost a solitary pound between them, while it's asking a lot of teenage duo of Tom Leggett and Issac Nehemie to turn it around in Brum. A big season from the currently injured Christian Benteke is essential if Villa are not to struggle once again.

Near neighbours West Brom surprised most with the appointment of Alan Irvine as manager. The Scot lacks direct managerial experience in the Premier League, having taken the reins of Preston North End and Sheffield Wednesday in the Championship, and he'll have to hit the ground running. The signings of Joleon Lescott, Chris Baird and Andre Wisdom should shore up a leaky backline although scoring goals will still be an issue. Definite strugglers again. 

The big move in the market has been Southampton who have tumbled in from 13.5n/a to a low of 5.24/1, settling at 5.79/2, following sales of (deep breath) Adam Lallana, Rickie Lambert, Luke Shaw, Dejan Lovren and Calum Chambers, who are among 12 players to have left St Mary's so far, along with manager Mauricio Pochettino. It could get worse too, with striker Jay Rodriguez and midfielder Morgan Schneiderlin rumoured to be on the cusp of joining Pochettino at Tottenham.  

Congratulations if you took double figures about Saints going down but even now they look a decent price. True, new manager Ronald Koeman could be the league's most inspirational head honcho and there may be big signings to come, but it all looks unlikely and 5.79/2 offers a healthy return.

Of the longer prices, West Ham are of interest given the major clash of egos between boardroom and dugout. However, the Hammers should be able to buy their way out of trouble if needs be, given the ambitions for the east London side ahead of their move to the former Olympic Stadium. 

Retaining Wilfried Bony looks key to Swansea's chances, but other signings are promising and they should be safe, while Sunderland should benefit from a full pre-season under Gus Poyet. Newcastle are notorious basket-cases but retain more than enough quality and Stoke were impressive under Mark Hughes in 2013-14 and would be surprise strugglers this time round. 

Recommended Bets
Back Southampton @ 5.79/2 (lay at evens to retain your stake)
Back Aston Villa  @ 4.216/5 (lay at evens to retain your stake)