Premier League Betting: Festive cheer for United fans but Clarets set to struggle

Louis van Gaal's Manchester United can set the early pace

Mike Norman takes a pre-season look at the Top and Bottom at Christmas markets and predicts a fast start for new boss Louis van Gaal at Old Trafford but quite the opposite for newly-promoted Burnley...

Top at Christmas

While each club's fixtures are undoubtedly the most important factor to consider when having a wager in this market, there are also a few basics that are very much worth researching beforehand.

Perhaps the most important one is working out how many points will be needed to have a chance of being top of the Premier League table after the December 20th weekend fixtures are completed.

It's not as simple as looking back over previous seasons however as the number of games played by the top side at Christmas has varied - 21 by Manchester United in the 1993/94 season for example, compared with 16 games played by the same club in the 2010/11 season.

You get a more accurate idea of what's required to be top of the table by working out the average points per game recorded by such teams, and then multiplying it by the number of 'counting' games due to be played this season.

The simple answer then - based on the last 10 seasons - is that you need to average 2.37 points per game to have a chance of topping the table at Christmas, and with 17 games to be played before that stage this year then at least 40 points will be required.

Any club not inside the top seven in the Premier League Winner market need not apply here.

At the time of writing the market is just starting to gain liquidity but it's almost a replica of the Winner market mentioned above - Chelsea are the favourites to be Top at Christmas and should be available to back at around the 3.412/5 mark, followed by Manchester City at 3.613/5, Manchester United at 6.05/1, and Arsenal at 7.06/1.

The team that catches the eye at those odds is unquestionably Man United, and for very good reasons.

The obvious starting point is the hiring of Louis van Gaal who in his first few weeks at the club appears to be making a huge impression. He hasn't been afraid to criticise the club's pre-season tour schedule, and nor has he been reluctant to tell his players that their performance wasn't good enough (most notably in United's 3-2 friendly win over Roma).

The Dutchman comes across as a strict disciplinarian who will only accept things done his way, and so far, his players can't speak highly enough about his methods.

New signing Ander Herrera was outstanding in his side's 7-0 win over LA Galaxy, while left-back Luke Shaw is one of the most promising youngsters in world football. And United are sure to make more quality signings before the end of the transfer window.

But it's the Red Devils' start to the season - plus having no European football to play - that makes them the bet in this market. A fast start is essential for any club with ambitions of being top of the table after 17 games and in that regard Van Gaal couldn't have wished for a better set of opening fixtures.

United play all three of the newly-promoted clubs - Leicester, Burnley and QPR - in the early weeks, and on paper their toughest away game looks to be a trip to the Stadium Of Light to face Sunderland. Swansea and West Ham at Old Trafford complete their first six games and Van Gaal will be targeting 15 or 16 points, possibly a maximum of 18, from these fixtures.

But also key is the fact that only United, along with Tottenham, have to face just five of the other 'big seven' clubs before December 20th, which is one fewer than Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, and Man City.

And even more in United's favour is that of those five games against their major rivlas, three of them are on home soil.

Put simply, United's opening 17 games of the season - taking them to Christmas - look far easier on paper than any other club and they don't have the distraction and extra games that European competitions bring. At 6.05/1 they look an outstanding bet in this market.

Recommended Bet
Back Man Utd to be Top at Christmas @ 6.05/1

Bottom at Christmas

Similar to the Top at Christmas market, working out a tally of points is important to help you determine which side will be staring down the barrel of relegation come the festive period.

And staring down the barrel they most certainly will be given that since the inception of the Premier League, 20 of the 22 clubs that have been Bottom at Christmas went on to be relegated, and 14 of those 20 relegated clubs also went on to finish rock bottom.

Of the 22 Premier League clubs that have been bottom at Christmas only West Brom in 2008/09 had more than 15 points, while the average points tally of all the bottom clubs is 11.68.

It's fairly safe to say then that any club accumulating at least 15 points between now and December 20th won't be entering the festive period bottom of the table, and it's quite possible that clubs with 12+ points will be in at least 19th position also.

In other words we're looking for a club that is unlikely to win more than three or four games from their opening 17 fixtures, and for that reason the 3.613/5 about Burnley looks a cracking bet. Given that the Clarets are 3.1511/5 to finish Rock Bottom I'm surprised that they aren't shorter to be Bottom at Christmas given their incredibly tough start to the campaign.

Sean Dyche's men entertain Chelsea and Manchester United within the first fortnight of the season and also have to play a number of clubs that they will be hoping to take points off - Swansea, Crystal Palace, and Leicester - away from home before the October international break.

Home games against three more of last season's top-10 clubs (Everton, Southampton, and Newcastle) are unlikely to result in more than one victory, while away trips to Arsenal, Tottenham, and imporving Stoke will probably return no victories at all.

The visits of Aston Villa - a side who can be brilliant one day, awful the next - and hard-to-beat Hull, plus an away trip to QPR, won't be easy either and at this stage it's very difficult to see the Premier League newcomers recording more than three wins.

Of course, anything can happen in football and you only have to look at Crystal Palace last season to see what can be achieved as underdogs. But it's worth remembering that the Eagles lost nine of their opening 10 games before their fortunes started to change - a similar start for Burnley and it's hard to see them recovering.

Recommended Bet
Back Burnley to be Bottom at Christmas @ 3.613/5