Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray?

Can anyone stop Djokovic, Nadal or Murray?

By Dan Weston Jun 10, 2014

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Tennis bettor’s attention should focus on the third major of the year, Wimbledon. This ATP Wimbledon betting preview looks at the odds and analyses the main contenders to see what it takes to win the grass court major.

Grass courts are the fastest surface on the ATP Tour, with there being 82.4% of service games held in 2013, a 3.8% increase on the ATP all-surface 12 month figure.  Conditions at Wimbledon were on the fast side in 2013, with 83.7% of service games being held, and this was quite consistent with the 83.0% 2012 figure.  This would indicate that the quick conditions will assist those players who benefit from a big serve.

However, as pointed out in previous Grand Slam previews, ‘big servers’ tend to struggle in Grand Slams due to the accumulated fatigue that naturally occurs playing more games per set and more sets per match, and it’s always worth pointing out that fitness – as well as avoiding playing long matches early in the tournament – is a crucial requirement for Grand Slam success.

Looking at recent history, it is clear that favourites dominate with just two players outside the top five reaching the final in the last ten years – Andy Roddick (6) in 2009 and Tomas Berdych (12) in 2010.  One of the top three seeds has won Wimbledon in all of the last ten years.

There is one name that dominates the winners list at Wimbledon in the last ten years – Roger Federer.  The Swiss legend has a magnificent 68-7 record and has won an incredible six out of the last ten tournaments in SW19, and was runner-up in 2008.  After a strong start to the 2014 season, the world number four cannot be ruled out this year, although suspicions that his ageing body may be vulnerable in five-set matches may well be justified.

With the top players having such a strong record at Wimbledon, it’s worth focusing on the top ten (less the injured 7th ranked Juan Martin Del Potro) ATP players in the rankings.  The following table illustrates the grass court statistics of the current ATP top ten:-

Player

Rank

24 Month Grass W-L Record

24 Month Grass Service Hold %

24 Month Grass Opponent Break %

24 Month Grass Combined %

Nadal

1

2-3

82.9

20

102.9

Djokovic

2

12-4

88.6

25.9

114.5

Wawrinka

3

4-3

83

18.7

101.7

Federer

4

19-3

91.7

25.7

117.4

Ferrer

5

13-4

90.1

23.2

113.3

Berdych

6

7-4

91.9

17.7

109.6

Murray

8

21-2

89.8

27.3

117.1

Raonic

9

6-6

91.1

11.5

102.6

Nishikori

10

8-4

79.2

28.2

107.4

Murray, Djokovic & Nadal lead the way

It can be seen from the table that Federer, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have the best grass court statistics, with David Ferrer close behind.

Murray – who defeated Djokovic in straight sets in last year’s final – has shown good form recently on his unfavoured clay surface and reports of his demise after back surgery appear to be grossly incorrect. The Scotsman also was a finalist in 2012, losing to Federer, and will be a major threat at Wimbledon, on what is arguably his best surface. However, a difficult draw from a relatively low seeding berth may cause him problems, while everyone waits to see how his relationship with new coach Amlie Mauresmo will work out.
This will not be a problem for Djokovic, with the Serb likely to be the number two seed, and seeded to meet Nadal in the final. However, quite surprisingly for a player of his talent and consistency, he has only made the final twice at Wimbledon, beating Nadal in 2011 and as previously mentioned, losing to Murray last year.

2014 French Open winner Nadal made five of six finals between 2006 and 2011, winning two of them. However, his recent experiences at Wimbledon have not been so positive, losing to Steve Darcis when priced 1.011 in 2013, and when priced at 1.008 against Lukas Rosol in 2012. Last year, the world number one failed to play a warm-up event for Wimbledon, and his schedule prior to this year’s event will be of great interest. Previous articles have indicated that there is a big problem for many players making the immediate switch from clay to grass.

Another top player with poor grass court stats, which also continue over a bigger sample, is Stan Wawrinka. Previous articles have highlighted his distaste for fast surfaces, with the Swiss also having very mediocre indoor hard statistics. It would be a surprise if the world number three had a strong showing at Wimbledon.

Is Ferrer underrated?

David Ferrer is a player that is often under-rated on grass, with the Spaniard often incorrectly perceived as a clay-court specialist. Whilst it is unlikely that he would make the final, the statistics show that he is capable of making a run in the event and justifying a high seeding.

The other main contender is Tomas Berdych. The Czech has the strongest service hold percentage on grass in the top ten, and this will make him very difficult to beat. A poor opponent break percentage is an issue, but should this be even slightly improved, he would be a major threat to any player on the surface, and could lead him to emulating his 2010 showing.

Milos Raonic (ranked 9th) has a lot to prove on grass, with the Canadian winning just one solitary match in 2013 on the surface, losing three. Kei Nishikori (10th) has the talent, but as always, his frail body is unlikely to hold up during an arduous Grand Slam.

Lower ranked players worth mentioning as tough early draws for high seeded players, would include Feliciano Lopez, Nicolas Mahut, Bernard Tomic, and Lukasz Kubot, who is defending quarter final points this year. The Australian veteran, Lleyton Hewitt, is very adept on grass, and would also be a dangerous floater in the draw.

As always, it is worth stressing that betting in ATP Grand Slams is a different proposition to normal 3-set matches. It is vital that bettors do their research and make the necessary adjustments if they are to profit at Wimbledon.

Click here for the latest ATP Wimbledon odds.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

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