The British Open by numbers: 18 betting trends

The British Open by numbers: 18 betting trends

By Michael Gales Jul 9, 2014

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This British Open Championship golf betting article highlights a number of key trends bettors should be aware of before picking a 2014 Open winner. The British Open is the only Major to be held on a links course – notoriously difficult – meaning playing experience is key to winning the oldest major.

1 – Mickelson breaks the mould

Last year Phil Mickelson became the first player since 1993 to win the Scottish Open the week before and then claim the British Open title, while no winner of the John Deere classic has gone on to win the following week.

1– Only Ben Curtis has won on debut since 1975

Ben Curtis is the only player to win on debut in the British Open since 1975 when he claimed his maiden major win at Royal St George’s in 2003. Eight others have won on debut, but none at Royal Liverpool. This could rule out any debutants before a ball has been hit.

2 – British winners in 20 years

There have been only two British winners of the Claret Jug in the past 20 years. Scotland’s Paul Lawrie won at Carnoustie in 1999, while Darren Clarke surprised golf by winning his first major at 42 at Royal St George’s in 2011. The last Englishman to win was Sir Nick Faldo in 1992.

*Padraig Harrington won back-to-back British Open titles in 2007 & 2008 but is from the Republic of Ireland, which is not classed as part of Britain.

3 – Repeat winners in last two decades

Three players since 1993 have won the British Open more than once. Tiger Woods claimed the title on three occasions in 2000, 2005 & 2006, Padraig Harrington won back-to-back titles in 2007 & 2008, while 2012 winner Ernie Els added that title to his previous win in 2002.

7 – Decided by a playoff

Seven British Opens – nearly 1 in 3 – have been decided by a playoff in the past 20 majors on the British Isles. The last came in 2009 when Stuart Cink beat veteran Tom Watson.

12 – years as a pro before winning Claret Jug

Professional experience is key. Just one – Ben Curtis in 2003 – of the last ten winners didn’t have at least eight years experience as a professional before winning – the average over the past decade is 14.8 years.

To battle through four rounds of a major on a links course is a tough physical and mental challenge, which can test the concentration of every competitor as the12 years average as a pro before winning suggests.

15% – Winners had won either Masters or US Open in same year

Interestingly winning a major the same year is not necessarily a precursor for success in the British Open. Just 15% of winners in the past 20 years have claimed either the Masters title or the US Open prior to the British Open. Can Martin Kaymer or Bubba Watson buck the trend?

18 – Major tournaments since Woods last won

Tiger Woods has returned to fitness and despite patchy form, this will be the first time Woods is pain free for a number of years. His search for his 15th major success continues after 18 major tournaments since his last win at the US Open in 2008.

In those 18 appearances Woods has finished on average 21st, however he has secured nine top 10 finishes. Interestingly for bettors Woods won the last time the Open was last held at Royal Liverpool in 2006.

18 – Only 4 repeat major winner since 2009

Remarkably since the domination of Tiger Woods from 2001-2008, there have been 19 different major winners, with only Rory McIlroy, Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson and Martin Kaymer winning more than one major.

19 – Most appearances before winning

After winning last year Phil Mickelson joined Darren Clarke as the players with the most appearances before winning the Claret Jug – 19.

38 – Average age of last five winners

The average age of the winner further enhances the trend that a winner needs experience to claim the British Open. The average age of the winner over the last five years is 38, which has increased from 33 over the past 20 years. The youngest winner was Tiger Woods at 24 in 2000, while the oldest was last year when Phil Mickelson won aged 43. Interestingly the last three winners have all been aged above 42.

45% – Winners in last 20 years have won 1st major at British Open

Nearly half of all British Open winners have won their first major at the British Open. The last was Darren Clarke in 2011, before Louis Oosthuizen and Stewart Cink in 2009 and 2010 respectively.

Could Lee Westwood, Luke Donald or Matt Kuchar claim their first major win this year at Hoylake?

63% – USA, USA

63% of the last 19 British Open winners have come from America. Mickelson continued the trend last year becoming the first American to win since Stewart Cink in 2009.

64% – Course experience key

The British Open rotates between venues yearly, so is a player more likely to win the British Open if they have played the course before?

64% of winners over the last 15 years have played the course at least once before winning, showing a clear trend between course experience and winning.

90% – Form a key indicator

Performance by winner before British Open

Year

Masters

US Open

Tour Win

2013

54

2

2

2012

DNP

9

0

2011

DNP

DNP

1

2010

Cut

Cut

1

2009

Cut

27

0

2008

5

36

0

2007

7

Cut

1

2006

3

Cut

2

2005

1

2

2

2004

40

Cut

1

2003

DNP

DNP

0

2002

5

24

1

2001

2

16

0

2000

5

1

4

1999

DNP

DNP

1

1998

1

32

1

1997

7

36

1

1996

18

2

0

1995

45

45

0

1994

35

Cut

3

Another clear trend from the last two decades is that success earlier in the season is vital. 90% of the last 20 winners have either won at least one PGA or European Tour event or finished in the top 10 of either the Masters or the US Open prior to arriving at the British Open.

276 – Average winning score since 1993

275.7 is the average winning score since 1993, which works out to a score of 68.9 per round. Tiger Woods won the last Open to be held at Royal Liverpool with a score of 270 in 2006.

300 – The Return of big priced winners

Another trend to consider when selecting a British Open winner is the recurrence of big priced winners. With the unpredictable nature of links golf huge winners have been seen in the past decade. Recent big priced winners include Darren Clarke at 125/1, Louis Oosthuizen in 2010 at 200/1 and Ben Crane at a mammoth 300/1.

1808 – Chance of an ace

With 156 players playing at least two rounds at Hoylake and a minimum of 70 players making the cut there will be at least 1808 opportunities for someone to score an ace.

The best possible chance of an ace is likely to be on the 13th or 15th Par 3. In 2006 at the 194 yard 13th, Australia’s John Senden made a hole-in-one, while at the 161 yard 16th , South Africa’s Richard Sterne also carded an ace.

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