Against All Odds: Struggling Serie B duo to get amongst the goals

This Brazilian lady obviously saw Djurgardens miss that injury time penalty yesterday

An injury time penalty miss cost Paul Robinson a winning start to the week but he's confident of righting that wrong in Brazil tonight as he thinks the Serie B clash between Portuguesa SP and Oeste is set to be a cracker.

Portuguesa SP v Oeste
Wednesday July 30, 01:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Portuguesa SP suffered a post-season points deduction last year that cost them their top flight status. The players then walked off the pitch during their opening Serie B game in April - resulting in the opposition being awarded a 3-0 win - and things haven't got that much better since as they are 18th in the table with only 11 points from 13 fixtures.

It's the goal stats we're most interested in tonight though and they make healthy reading for this particular selection.  Marcelo Veiga's side have scored 13 and conceded 21, to give their matches an average of 2.62 goals each time. Seven of their 13 games have gone over 2.5 - including three of their last five at home - and they recently suffered a 4-1 defeat in front of their own fans.

Oeste are another club who have been struggling this term as they're down in 16th place - just a point and a place above the relegation zone. They were boosted by victory last time out - their first since May - but I wouldn't back them to follow up on it.

As far as the goals go, like their opponents, they have also scored 13 and conceded 21 to give their matches an identical average of 2.62 per 90 minutes. Again, seven of their 13 have gone over 2.5, with three going over 3.5 - a target that was hit in 11 of their 38 last season.

Jos Macena's men have shipped seven in their last two away games - 14 in half a dozen on the road - and they will struggle to keep a clean sheet in this one.

I could quite easily make under 2.5 goals my lay of the day as it's marginally odds-on, but if that's a touch of value - I certainly wouldn't put you off that bet - then opposing under 3.5 is even more so. That's why, with it trading at around the 1.384/11 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.    

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 3.5 goals in Portuguesa SP v Oeste @ 1.384/11 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 200 pts
Returned: 208.59 pts
P/L: + 8.59 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)