Brazil underperformed but still topped Group A

Brazil underperformed but still topped Group A

By Michael Gales Jul 3, 2014

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Brazil were expected to dominate their 2014 World Cup Group A and breeze through to the knockout stages, but only topped the group on goal difference. Read this 2014 World Cup Group A betting review for an insight into how the group turned out and how accurate the pre-tournament odds were.

2014 World Cup Group A betting review

2014 World Cup Group A final table

Nation

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Points

Brazil

2

1

0

7

2

5

7

Mexico

2

1

0

4

1

3

7

Croatia

1

0

1

6

6

0

3

Cameroon

0

0

3

1

9

-8

0

Brazil were huge 1.050 favourites to progress to the knockout stages on home soil. Despite an implied probability of 95.24% they topped the group on goal difference having won two and drew against Mexico.

However, given their odds they underperformed in Group A and were expected to claim a maximum of nine points – in reality they struggled against Croatia despite winning 3-1, and were unconvincing in a 0-0 draw with Mexico.

Mexico in comparison were always expected to compete with Croatia for the final qualifying position given the implied probability of 46.73% and 41.67% respectively. Cameroon however, performed as expected – losing all three games.

2014 World Cup Group A pre-tournament implied probability table

Position

Nation

Odds

Implied probability

Actual finishing position

1

Brazil

1.050

95.24%

1

2

Croatia

2.140

46.73%

3

3

Mexico

2.400

41.67%

2

4

Cameroon

4.850

20.62%

4

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