Against All Odds: Dodgepots Sao Paulo to be taken on

Which Sao Paulo will turn up tonight?

It's Copa do Brasil action for Paul Robinson tonight as he thinks that Sao Paulo can't be trusted at odds-on for their trip to Bragantino.

Bragantino v Sao Paulo
Thursday July 31, 02:00 BST

Bragantino have made a poor start to their Serie B campaign as after 13 fixtures they are second from bottom with only 10 points. The worst part about that is the fact that they earned most of those in their opening eight games. The Sao Paulo based club come into this match on the back of four successive league defeats and they will have to raise their game to achieve a positive result tonight.

Interestingly though, Paulo Csar Gusmo's side managed to do just that in the last round of this competition as they knocked out Figueirense on penalties eight days ago. It is also worth considering that they have lost just three of their last 14 at their home of Nabizo.

Sao Paulo are one of the biggest clubs in Brazil and, on paper at least, they should cruise through this tie - even winning the away leg tonight. Betting is all about value though and the best rule to use involving Sao Paulo is to back them when they're a big price and lay them when they're odds-on.

A frustratingly inconsistent team, Muricy Ramalho's men have already achieved some cracking results this term - most notably beating Gremio and drawing at Cruzeiro. However they've also thrown in some shocking performances, including a 5-2 defeat at Fluminense and an appalling 1-0 loss at home to Chapecoense. 

It is also worth noting that they've lost their last two in a row, and in the last round of this competition, they were beaten in the first leg 2-1 at minnows, CRB.

It wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world if Sao Paulo won tonight, but they certainly aren't value. That's why, at around the 1.491/2 mark, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Sao Paulo v Bragantino @ 1.491/2 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 201 pts
Returned: 208.59 pts
P/L: + 7.59 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)