Head of Live Soccer Q&A Transcript

Head of Live Soccer Q&A Transcript

By Gary Wise Jun 10, 2014

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Pinnacle Sports Head of Live Soccer (HOLS) took over the official @PinnacleSports account on June 9th to take questions from followers on live betting and 2014 World Cup just 3 days before the start of the tournament. If you missed it, the following transcript, (edited for clarity) will bring you up to date:

Q1. From email: How important is climate to this World Cup?

HOLS: I think it’s big, but not as big as it’s being made out to be. I expect it’ll be big in live play…some teams – like Croatia in the opener – have set themselves up well defensively, but that set up requires a lot of work for 90 minutes every four days. That could play a big part.

I should add, I saw our Head of Props mentioned the World Cup sampling goes back too far to be completely valid. Even he didn’t account in his answers for players being so much better conditioned today. Jack Wilshere smokes one cigarette and he makes tabloid headlines. In 1994, that wouldn’t have been news.

Q2. From email: What is the biggest thing that separates World Cup from other competitions as live betting goes?

HOLS: First of all, it’s much bigger. Then, a lot of matches have unusual circumstances. It’s small group and that makes for strange circumstances, like teams just needing to draw or having to force a win. In the knockout stages, it’s actually kind of weird because theoretically, there shouldn’t be a difference, but when a team is chasing a result, they’ll start chasing much sooner. That doesn’t really make a lot of sense because in league games, they still lose if they’re going to lose, but that’s what we’ve always seen.

That makes for a lot of strange dynamics and some funky betting

Q3. From email: Who do you think will win the World Cup?

HOLS: I think it has to be Brazil. They’d be one of the best teams if the World Cup wasn’t in Brazil.

Q4. From email: How much does a red card move a line in game?

HOLS: It really depends. Who gets the card? Were they the favourite? What was the score? Time of game? They all play into figuring out how to move the line. One of the other big factors is how big gap was between the teams to start. If it’s Brazil playing Cameroon, it makes less of a difference than Croatia-Mexico.

Brazil playing on a red is still better than Cameroon, Cameroon playing on a red is still worse than Brazil, so the difference isn’t too big.

**To read more about the effects of cards on live markets, read this: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/04-2013/impact-of-red-cards-in-live-soccer-betting.aspx

Q5. From pstreett3: Any 1st round games that you like to go over the usual 2.5/3 goals? Or will there be too much “feeling each other out”?

HOLS: I’m not sure I’m so much behind the ‘feeling each other out’ theory. The top seeds are so established that everyone else needs to play to win. I actually expect a lot of those secondary teams to go for it when they play each other. If you assume Brazil wins the group, Croatia, Cameroon and Mexico NEED to beat one another. There’s no time to feel it out.

Q6. From email: How important are substitutions to your live lines? Why?

HOLS: They’re more important when a coach has to use them early, like in Champions League final. Taking off a player really early really matters.

** You can read more about the importance of cards in live play here: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/04-2013/impact-of-red-cards-in-live-soccer-betting.aspx

Q7. From email: How will live offerings from Group Stage differ from those for R16 on?

HOLS: In terms of what we actually offer? Not that much. We’ll have higher limits and a ‘To advance’ line. We might add some props, and some 15-minute segments.

Q8. From @ltfc1972: Will you be betting in play during extra time and penalty shootouts

HOLS: we will offer extra time of course and we will offer a prop like (Germany 1st Penalty – Scored) vs. (Germany 1st Penalty – Missed) for penalty shootouts.

Q9. From @Tip4theWeekend: How much of the odds movement over time is automatic and how much is done by a human? Does money have a big effect in play?

HOLS: we have an automated tool that suggests a move, but by itself that isn’t good enough we need human impact not least to account for money being wagered.

After these questions, we asked HOLS for his opinions on some Tournament Totals questions:

Q10. Who do you think will score more goals: Algeria, Costa Rica or Iran?

HOLS: It has to be Algeria, right? I think they’re the best team and they’re in the weakest group. Suppose it could be Costa Rica, because they get to play EnglandJ England’s defense doesn’t have the international accomplishments they’d like.

Q11. Do you think there will be more own goals or missed penalties (ignoring shootouts)?

HOLS: I think there will be twice as many own goals. I might be wrong, but if I’m remembering correctly that’s usually the way the math works. There weren’t even twice as many penalties as own goals in EPL. Maybe it’s just an EPL thing, I don’t know. 1/4 of all penalties won’t cut it.

Q12. Do you think there will be more goals scored in first halves or second halves?

HOLS: That’s 2nd halves. That’s rock solid. Soccer overall sees about 56% of all goals scored in 2nd halves.

Whether or not you buy into HOLS’ answers, you can play Tournament Totals here: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/pinnacle-puzzle.aspx

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