The Big Wednesday Multiple: Smooth sailing for HJK Helsinki

Can HJK Helsinki make it through to the group stage this year?

It was a Wednesday to remember for Paul Robinson last week as all four of his picks came in to land a 16.88 (16/1) multiple. Here are this week's selections...

Bet 1: HJK Helsinki (HOME) @ 1.4 (2/5) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 17:00 BST

HJK Helsinki are the reigning Finnish champions and with a nine point lead at the top of their domestic league already this season, they look set for a successful defence. 

Mika Lehkosuo and his men can now turn their attentions to Europe and they will have their sights set on achieving the lofty goal of making it through to the group stage of the Champions League. They still have a long way to go but the 0-0 draw with Rabotnicki in Macedonia was a solid enough result and they should have enough quality to get the job done at the Sonera Stadium.

Rabotnicki would have been relatively pleased with that first leg stalemate as they didn't concede an away goal and now a score draw will take them through. While they enjoyed the majority of possession in that game, they had fewer overall shots than their opponents and only had two corners to HJK's nine.

Bet 2: Legia Warsaw (AWAY) @ 1.7 (7/10) - Live on Premier Sports at 19:45 BST

Polish champions, Legia Warsaw, needed an injury time equaliser in the first leg of this tie to earn a 1-1 draw with St Patrick's and while that has left them with a bit of a mountain to climb, I expect them to do it.

Former Premier League star, Henning Berg, is the man in charge at Warsaw and he will be hoping that his team perform better in front of goal this week. They had 17 shots against the Irish last time but only three troubled the goalkeeper. They completely dominated the possession and that match - as well as the 1-0 defeat to Belchatow on Saturday - will have hopefully shaken off any early season rustiness.

St Patrick's will have been delighted by that result in Poland however they will be kicking themselves for not keeping a clean sheet. I have to put that draw down to a bit of a fluke though and I can't see them getting any further than this round in their first appearance in the Champions League since 1999. 

Liam Buckley's side have won just one of their last five in all competitions and while they have a good home record, they are prone to getting rolled over at times - as evidenced by the 4-1 and 5-1 defeats by Dundalk and Sligo back in April.

Bet 3: San Lorenzo v Bolivar (Over 2.5 goals) @ 2.2 (6/5) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 23:45 BST

To the South American equivalent of the Champions League now as San Lorenzo and Bolivar meet in the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores and I'm willing to take a punt on over 2.5 goals at the prices.

San Lorenzo are the red-hot favourites to land this tournament for the first time in their history. The giants of South American football have already fallen by the wayside and the Argentinian club look set to pick up the pieces.

Edgardo Bauza's side need to negotiate this tie first though and they will be keen to build a lead to take with them to Bolivia. The goal-stats might not be overly in favour of the selection, but it is worth remembering that when San Lorenzo won the Torneo Inicial in December of last year, their 19 matches averaged 2.42 goals each time, with 10 of them having three or more.

Bolivar have matched their 1986 achievement of reaching the last four of the Libertadores and they will be dreaming of a final showdown with either Nacional Asuncion or Defensor Sporting. They really could do with getting an away goal though and I expect them to be relatively adventurous for a visiting team in a continental competition.

That tactic should leave the door ajar at the other end and we could well end up with the desired three goals.

Bet 4: Ventspils v Malmo FF (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.83 (5/6) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 17:00 BST

We conclude back in the Champions League as the clash between Ventspils and Malmo FF looks set to be low-scoring.

Latvian champions, Ventspils, earned an impressive 0-0 draw in Sweden last week and while they didn't get an away goal, they are still well in the tie. Their tactic was to park the bus - 28% possession and two shots all match - but it was effective and I'm sure they'll adopt a similar approach this evening.

The onus will be on Malmo to force the play and that is something they failed to do well enough in Latvia. Despite all that possession, ge Hareide's men only had five shots on target and that now means that three of their last four outings have gone under 2.5 goals. 

It is also worth noting that the Swedish champs come into this game on the back of five successive away games that have had two goals or less - including three 1-0 victories.

Recommended Multiple

Back HJK Helsinki @ 1.4 (2/5)
Back Legia Warsaw @ 1.7 (7/10)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in San Lorenzo v Bolivar @ 2.2 (6/5)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Ventspils v Malmo FF @ 1.83 (5/6)

The Multiple pays approximately 9.58 (17/2)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2013/14 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 48 pts
Returned: 95.11 pts
P/L: + 47.11 pts