Premier League Top Goalscorer Betting: Sturridge the selection but don't ignore big prices

Daniel Sturridge ponders his chances of being the 2014-15 Golden Boot

Joe Dyer takes an early look at the Premier League top goalscorer market where he urges punters to look beyond the obvious... 

With goalscoring phenomenon Luis Suarez gone there is an open look to this year's Golden Boot betting with the market suggesting four men will battle it out to be the top-flight's top gun. All four trade in single figures and all four play for teams considered genuine title challengers - 5.85/1 Robin van Persie, 7.613/2 Sergio Aguero, 8.27/1 Daniel Sturridge and Chelsea new boy 8.88/1 Diego Costa. 

All four have obvious claims, and no one will mock you for backing any one of them. Players from the big clubs have dominated ever since Kevin Phillips' stellar 1999-00 campaign for Sunderland with big names such as Thierry Henry, Didier Drogba and Van Persie claiming the crown. If you are looking for a winner this is where your search must start.  

But the fact that Phillips was able to win means you shouldn't ignore those at longer prices and there are enough doubts about the quartet to consider less popular options.  

Van Persie is rightly favourite in the market. He has scored heavily for the last four seasons, finishing top of the pile as an Arsenal player in 2011-12 and then in the red shirt of Manchester United the following season. Now linking up with former Netherlands manager Louis van Gaal, RvP looks sure to be the main man at Old Trafford.  

However, injuries have always been a problem for the Dutchman and it's easy to envisage the 30-year-old spending significant portions of next season in the treatment room as he nurses one knock or another. It's certainly a reason to pause before hitting the back button. 

Injuries are very much Aguero's problem, too. The Argentinian missed much of last season's climax for Manchester City and was not right throughout his national team's World Cup campaign. A fit Aguero would probably be the bet but there is too much doubt to have him on board from the off. 

With Alvaro Negredo also injured Manchester City's main man for the early months will probably be Edin Dzeko. A prolific goalscorer when he gets on the pitch, the Bosnian holds appeal but has never been Manuel Pellegrini's first choice and the likely lack of game time means Dzeko could be a frustrating bet. 

Michael Lintorn isn't keen on any of the City strikers figuring in the top scorer betting. 

Last year's runner-up, Daniel Sturridge, also missed a chunk of last season - playing just 42 games in total for Liverpool and England - but is probably a little more robust than Aguero or van Persie. The 24-year-old should be first choice at Anfield and playing under an attack-minded manager is my pick from the favourites. 

Injuries are again a concern with fourth favourite Costa who exploded out of the blocks last year, scoring 23 goals for Atletico Madrid last season before 2013 turned into 2014. He continued to force the pace through the early months but dropped off thereafter - of his 35 goal haul, only three came from April onwards as he suffered with an injured hamstring. 

The Brazilian-born Spaniard needs to adapt to the Premier League, and that can be tricky - just look at Roberto Soldado's struggles last year. 

That is the challenge facing Alexis Sanchez at Arsenal. Another addition to the Gunners' well-stocked cupboard of attacking midfielders, the Chilean is 16.015/1 fifth favourite. Getting used to the new league will take some time and competition will be tough, especially when Theo Walcott returns, so a watching brief might be wise. 

Van Persie's prominence at Old Trafford has pushed Wayne Rooney out to 17.5n/a and that is of interest. Early signs are that van Gaal favours two upfront, which suggests game time for the Englishman, who is capable of scoring heavily in a single season.  As a trading vehicle you could do a lot worse than back Rooney. 

The same applies to Olivier Giroud. Still Arsenal's only out-and-out striker of note, the Frenchman looks likely to lead the line for the north Londoners. This battering ram of a centre-forward has improved year-on-year at Arsenal and has proven to be capable of scoring enough goals to contend in the Golden Boot battle. 

Romelu Lukaku 32.031/1 and Wilfried Bony 34.033/1 would be of interest but there are question marks over where either will play their football next season and can't be backed for that reason. Lukaku would be first choice at Everton and is open to improvement, but staying at Chelsea would be a killer for his chances. Bony may not even be in the Premier League when it all starts on August 16. 

Beyond that we are looking at goalscoring midfielders - Yaya Toure, Eden Hazard - strikers who need to suddenly find form - Soldado, Christan Benteke - or unproven new arrivals - Graziano Pelle, Charlie Austin. 

Those keen on playing massive prices might want to take a flier with Austin, currently available to back at 120.0119/1. The Englishman was prolific throughout an injury-hit season at QPR to suggest he might just be Premier League class. 

Recommended Bets
Back Daniel Sturridge @ 8.27/1
Back Wayne Rooney @ 17.5n/a (lay to get your stake back if he touches 4.03/1)
Back Olivier Giroud @ 23.022/1 (lay to get your stake back if he touches 4.57/2)