Can Williams return to the top of her game at Wimbledon?

Can Williams return to the top of her game at Wimbledon?

By Dan Weston Jun 10, 2014

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WTA tennis bettor’s attention should turn towards the third major of the year, Wimbledon. This WTA Wimbledon betting preview looks at the openness of the draw compared to the ATP, and analyses the main women contenders.

As previously mentioned in WTA tournament previews, it is vital that bettors treat the WTA version (best of three sets) as a completely different betting proposition to the ATP version (best of five sets).  Whilst the men’s competition is a supreme test of fitness, the women’s tournament is no different in match duration to normal events.

Interestingly, the lower number of sets appears to lead to more shocks in the women’s Grand Slam events, and the current French Open has been no different, with Serena Williams, Na Li and Agnieszka Radwanska (three of the top four seeds) exiting the event early.

Wimbledon, historically, has also shown this to be the case.  This is the polar opposite to the men’s event, which has been traditionally dominated by the elite players.

The top seed in the women’s event at Wimbledon has only been won by the top seed twice in the last ten years (Amelie Mauresmo, 2006, and Serena Williams, 2010).  Indeed, the top seed has only been runner-up twice as well, with Williams achieving this in 2004 and Lindsay Davenport doing so in 2005.

Seven players ranked outside the top ten have been finalists, with an incredible four winners coming from outside the top ten seeds.  Last year’s final between Marion Bartoli – now retired – and Sabine Lisicki, consisted of two players outside the top ten.

On that historical basis, Serena Williams may not be the automatic choice for the title.  The dominant American’s statistics across all surfaces have declined slightly in 2014, but it’s worth pointing out that they are still far superior to her competition.  What will encourage her backers is that she has won the title three out of the last five years, with sister Venus also taking three titles from 2005-2008.  With a 52-6 venue record, she will still be the player to beat.

With such an open history of winners, a longer priced pick may well have a good chance to be a winner.  The following table illustrates the grass court stats for the WTA top 20:

Player

Rank

24 Month Grass W-L Record

24 Month Grass Service Hold %

24 Month Grass Opponent Break %

24 Month Grass Combined %

Williams S

1

10-1

87.6

37.3

124.9

Li

2

6-3

74.7

44.6

119.3

Radwanska A

3

11-4

76.8

37.7

114.5

Halep

4

6-3

68.9

44.9

113.8

Azarenka

5

6-1

81.7

54.2

135.9

Kvitova

6

8-5

78.2

31.8

110

Jankovic

7

4-4

69.3

31

100.3

Sharapova

8

8-2

80

37.5

117.5

Kerber

9

11-4

78.3

40.1

118.4

Cibulkova

10

6-4

60.6

40.6

101.2

Errani

11

2-3

58.7

41.7

100.4

Ivanovic

12

5-3

68.5

30.6

99.1

Pennetta

13

4-4

58.8

36.6

95.4

Wozniacki

14

4-4

64.1

38.5

102.6

Suarez Navarro

15

6-4

61

41.4

102.4

Bouchard

16

2-2

70

25.5

95.5

Lisicki

17

12-5

76.8

30.5

107.3

Stosur

18

4-4

76.6

35.4

112

Stephens

19

6-2

70.2

34.7

104.9

Vinci

20

11-5

71.3

37.4

108.7

What is immediately apparent is the extreme mediocrity of a large proportion of the WTA top 20 on grass.

Is Williams losing her edge?

Jelena Jankovic, Dominika Cibulkova, Sara Errani, Ana Ivanovic, Flavia Pennetta, Caroline Wozniacki, Carla Suarez Navarro, Eugenie Bouchard and Sloane Stephens all have combined surface hold/break grass stats of below 105, although several promising young players – Bouchard and Stephens – have the potential to improve these.

It is also clear that Williams enjoys much less superiority over the competition than she does on either hard court or clay, with her grass court hold/break stats being much more in line with her peers.  Indeed Victoria Azarenka has better 2 year grass stats, although it’s highly likely that the Belarusian will miss this year’s Wimbledon with injury.

The statistics indicate that Williams’ main competition will come from Na Li, 2014 French Open winner Maria Sharapova and as an outsider, Angelique Kerber.  All three have strong surface stats, including very high service hold percentages, which is vital on grass, with there being fewer breaks on the surface.

Interestingly, Li has never made it to a Wimbledon final, despite solid surface stats.  However, she has experience of Grand Slam finals and the world number two has to be a strong contender here.

Undoubtedly, Sharapova is also a big threat to the title, after her shock exit to Michelle Larcher de Brito (priced at 1.020) last year.  The Russian also, surprisingly, has a mediocre record in SW19, requiring seven years after her 2004 victory to get to the final again, losing to Petra Kvitova in 2011.

Kvitova’s strong serve will get her many free points on the fast grass surface, but her propensity to play three set matches means that she will struggle to achieve the consistency required to win seven matches in two weeks to prevail in a Grand Slam.  However, it can be argued that grass is her best surface, and on a given day, can beat any WTA player on the surface.

As has been highlighted, Kerber’s stats indicate that she could be a viable choice as an underdog at Wimbledon. The German world number nine is yet to compete in a Grand Slam final, and this will be a big issue for her.  However, she will be a tough opponent to any player and if she gets an open draw, could possibly emulate Lisicki’s (who has been struggling with injury in recent months) achievement in making the final.

The best of the rest

Also worth considering are Agnieszka Radwanska, Simona Halep and Sam Stosur.

Stosur, in particular, has the strong serve beneficial for success on grass and despite doubts over her mental strength, could have a good run in the tournament.

Radwanska and Halep have plenty of experience at the business end of tournaments but both have little late-stage Grand Slam experience.  However, what is without doubt is that their statistics indicate they have the quality required to make a big impact, and in the case of Halep, it’s reasonable to assume that with the strides she has made in the last year, she can improve her stats further and be a big player at Wimbledon.

The women’s event at Wimbledon promises to be a very open contest and bettors would be well advised to research players’ capabilities on the surface, which is unique to any other.

Click here to see the latest 2014 WTA Wimbledon odds.

Dan Weston is a freelance tennis writer who, along with producing expert content for Pinnacle Sports, also produces his own tennis rating system, and trading analysis, which can be found at www.tennisratings.co.uk.

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