Against All Odds: Copa do Brasil tie to be low scoring

They have to pray for goals at Corinthians

It's Brazilian Cup action for Paul Robinson tonight as he thinks the first leg between Corinthians and Bahia will be a very low-scoring affair.

Corinthians v Bahia
Thursday July 24, 02:00 BST
Available on Betfair Live Video  

Corinthians are having a fine campaign to date after an in-different one last time. The 2012 FIFA Club World Cup champions struggled last term under then manager, Tite, but Mano Menezes has returned to the club and he has lifted them to second place in the Campeonato after 11 fixtures.

Their problem was scoring goals and while they have improved that this year, it's not been a drastic change. 'Timo' have had nine of their 11 league games go under 2.5 goals - five going under 1.5 - and their matches are averaging 1.73 goals overall. Given that this is the first leg of a cup tie, I expect a cautious approach with the onus on keeping a clean sheet.

Bahia are having a poor season to date and they are only clear of the relegation zone by a single point. They are at least through to the third round of the Copa do Brasil though and they ended a five game losing streak on Saturday by holding Atletico Mineiro to a 1-1 draw.

Marquinhos Santos' men have scored even fewer goals than tonight's opponents and with only eight in the 'for' column and 13 conceded, their matches are averaging 1.91 goals per 90 minutes. Five of their last half dozen on the road have gone under 2.5 and in the away leg of their tie in the last round of this competition, the score was 0-0.

I wouldn't expect more than two goals in this one and at the prices I'm willing to take the chance on there being one or fewer. That's why, at around the 1.491/2 mark, I have to make over 1.5 goals my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Corinthians v Bahia @ 1.491/2 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 194 pts
Returned: 206.51 pts
P/L: + 12.51 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)