Outsiders Costa Rica surprise all by finishing top

Outsiders Costa Rica surprise all by finishing top

By Charlie Rowing Jul 4, 2014

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Costa Rica, the team considered least likely to qualify from Group D managed to not only qualify, but finish top of a group containing three former World Cup winners. Read this 2014 World Cup Group D betting review for an insight into how the group turned out and how accurate the pre-tournament odds were.

2014 World Cup Group D betting review

2014 World Cup Group D final table

Nation

W

D

L

GF

GA

GD

Points

Costa Rica

2

1

0

4

1

3

7

Uruguay

2

0

1

4

4

0

6

Italy

1

0

2

2

3

-1

3

England

0

1

2

2

4

-2

1

Costa Rica literally defied the odds to finish top of their group and qualify for the knockout stages for the first time in their history. Prior to the tournament they were 8.220 to get out of the group – an implied probability of 12.17%.

They did so in a convincing manner, after going a goal down to Uruguay they came back to win 3-1, they then went on to record a 1-0 win over 2006 champions Italy which qualified them for the Last 16 with a game to spare. A goalless draw against England ensured that they would finish top and without a single defeat.

Italy again flattered to deceive, although they also went out at the group stages in 2010, the Azzurri were the 1.400 favourites to qualify from the group – an implied probability of 71.43%.

2014 World Cup Group D pre-tournament implied probability table

Position

Nation

Odds

Implied probability

Actual finishing position

1

Italy

1.400

71.43%

3

2

Uruguay

1.541

64.89%

2

3

England

1.769

56.53%

4

4

Costa Rica

8.220

12.17%

1

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