Dan Weston Q&A Transcript

Dan Weston Q&A Transcript

By Gary Wise May 30, 2014

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On May 28th, 2014, Pinnacle Sports handed the reigns for its official twitter account over to tennis columnist/analyst Dan Weston. A professional who’s been referenced in numerous mainstream media outlets, Weston took questions from our followers to help share his practices and contribute to their education. Below, find the transcript of what transpired (with multiple-tweet questions and answers consolidated into one, and hashtags/excess account names removed):

Dan Weston (DW): Hello everyone, I’m ready for your questions! Anything in tennis, betting and trading in-play is good for you to ask. I’ll take some article suggestions too!

Q1. from earlier in the week: Recently, a follower suggested of tennis betting “Stats mean little compared to who brings their game & better adjusts to opposition strength/weakness.” How do you respond to that assessment?

DW: First of all, it’s very player dependant. There are some players who, when they have an off day, are still good enough to win. A player like Carla Suarez-Navarro has an excellent record of winning when a heavy favorite, so she’ll get the job done against an inferior player, while some other players aren’t as good in those situations.There are a lot of situational factors there to investigate. Match-up issues, how players deal with left-handers, big serve etc. It’s not as black and white as the questions suggests. It’s about getting objective analysis rather than subjective. #pinnacle

Q2. from @_GreekWay_: You are involved in trading so do you thing you can trade on @PinnacleSports ? Also do stats always say the truth?

DW: The stats always say the truth. Stats are the best means of analysis IMO. They give a strong overview of a match-up.

Q3. from @frankbutcher76: Apart from your own Dan, which are the best sites for getting stats and the latest news?

DW: I actually find the ATP website is very good for general stats. Much better than WTA. I also find Twitter excellent for news because you can search for a player and come up with all the info you need.

Q4. from @Jdemz: Do you ever live trade off watching a match and have a feel on how it’s going to play out. Or is it all stats?

DW: The simple answer is no. I don’t want to bias my view and find stats are the best way to get a fair assessment.

Q5. from @FootyBetproTips: What is the best live scoreboard to use for trading tennis ? I find I am always way to far behind.

DW: The best one I’ve found is Flashscores. It’s still not super quick. I’m always looking for something faster, though Flashscores’ point by point histories are great.

Q6. from @Dennis7menace: Some times the odds don’t reflect the ranking of the players and their history? What is the reason behind that?

DW: I find ranking is useful as a benchmark, but you need to understand ability varies greatly from surface to surface. Someone like Pironkova can play player X on clay, but be a favourite on grass.

Q7. from @cartermoore100 Dan. Are there any really good sites out there you would recommend for stats like matchstat or heavy topspin.

DW: I use so many sites its hard to endorse one. Amongst those I use are Tennis Insight, Flashscores and oddsportal.

Q8. from @dboy03: What makes clay courts so diff from the rest? Are great clay court players an even higher favorite than normal?

DW: Good question. Simple answer is yes. Clay exaggerates the difference; slowing the game down lowers variance. You may have just inspired a future article:)

Q9. from @Cartermoore: Are there certain handicappers or writes on tennis you read.

DW: I don’t have a set list, I like to listen to broad opinions, but ultimately trust my own.

Q10. from @Frada_Felcher: what % hold do you guys try to keep in your futures market for majors? Is it smaller than regular ATP/WTA events?

DW: My analysis isn’t Pinnacle’s and Pinnacle’s isn’t mine. You’ll have to ask them that:) #Pinnacle

Q11. from @FootyBetProTips: Thanks, who is your fav for the woman’s french open title now then ? Pretty wide open now Serena has gone out.

DW: Good question:) Based on numbers, the top two favs in the market are justified. Tough to look past Sharapova.

Q12. from @_GreekWay_: If you follow stats how much more likely it is to come a profitable bettor or trader?

DW: As long as it’s the right stats and the right analysis, it has to help. Stats eliminate bias.

Q13. from @bendjaminwright: What data do you look at when compiling hold % on a per match basis?

DW: I look at service, hold and break %s for each player on a given surface.

I also look at court speed and service hold %s from events at that venue.

Q14. from @AlexvanWrinkled: Dan, Do you prefer pork scratchings or crisps with a pint? #Pinnacle

DW: I’m on a diet, so neither:) #Pinnacle

Q15. from @MarbleousQ: I accept that Pinnacle’s moneyline tennis rules are first set complete. Would Pinnacle consider offering a choice of rules (similar to in baseball with listed pitchers or action)?

DW: The short answer is that bookmakers in general should be consistent and offer the same rules. I like Pinnacle’s best because I find them the fairest solution and the most commonly accepted.

Q16. from @bendjaminwright: Do you use Oncourt or a similar database?

DW: I don’t use Oncourt (nothing against it)…just don’t need it for what I do. A lot of the stats I use are available there though. I’ve harvested all of my own in-play data.

Q17. From @_GreekWay_: How easy is it to oppose one of the top 5 players when stats suggest so? I find it hard.

DW: No, not if the numbers are there to do it. Trust the math:)

Q18.  From @cartermoore100: do you trade in other markets besides tennis?

DW: No, tennis takes up too much of my time to focus properly on other sports. Research is serious business.

Q19. from email: The tennis (and betting) world was rocked today with Serena’s early #FrenchOpen exit. Did you see it coming?

DW: Truthfully, no. She probably hasn’t played at her usual level, but she’s usually so much better than everyone else that even when not playing at her fittest, she’s usually reliable. Still, I took another look and found some interesting stats:

2013: 83.5% hold, 53.4% break 136.9% combined, 95% W-L%

2014: 82.6% hold, 48.5% break 131.1% combined 87% W-L%

Clearly, from these numbers, we see that she’s already declined this season.

DW: Many thanks for all the questions! It’s been a lot of fun chatting with everybody! Good luck betting French Open. If you have any article requests, let me know at @tennisratings. Always looking for fodder:)

Want to ask our experts similar questions to help get ready for World Cup? Now’s your chance! Read how here: http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/05-2014/world-cup-twitter-chat.aspx

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.