Is Recency Bias creating value?

Is Recency Bias creating value?

By Gary Wise Jun 11, 2014

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On Saturday June 14th, the UFC returns to Canada for UFC 174 where Rory MacDonald is the underdog in his co-main event fight against Tyron Woodley. This article looks at a number of UFC 174 betting indicators that suggest that status is unearned.

On recency and showcase knockout bias

At the UFC on FX held in January 2012, Nic Denis locked up with opponent Joseph Sandoval and viciously elbowed him five times in a row, knocking Sandoval out. Denis’ odds closed at 1.49 against his next opponent, Roland Delorme. Delorme submitted Denis in the first round of their fight and Denis retired from the sport.

That same month, at UFC 142, Edson Barboza scored a phenomenal spinning back kick that knocked opponent terry Etim back in time. With that memory entrenched, bettors piled on Barboza for his UFC 146 fight against Jamie Varner. Barboza closed at 1.20 and promptly got knocked out 3 minutes into the fight.

These are two examples of how the flash of a spectacular knockout can lodge itself in the minds of sports bettors. We may be seeing the effect at work again, this time in Saturday’s co-main event between Tyron Woodley and Rory MacDonald.

On July 27th, 2013, Rory MacDonald won his 5th consecutive fight in the UFC’s Welterweight division, a run that included wins over mainstays Nate Diaz, BJ Penn and Jake Ellenberger. He was considered the division’s heir apparent to Georges St. Pierre, who he hadn’t been paired with because of MacDonald’s stated refusal to fight his teammate.

McDonald’s streak came to an end after a lackluster performance resulted in a split decision loss to Robbie Lawler, who’d go on to come within a hair of the title in his next fight against Jonny Hendricks. He’s since defeated Damien Maia despite being dominated in the first round of their three-round bout, a triumph that had critics declaring MacDonald back.

Woodley, meanwhile, has gone 3-2 over the last two years, but it’s the way he achieved his last two victories that may have bettors over-valuing him for UFC 174. Woodley knocked out UFC mainstay Josh Koscheck, buckling the older man’s knees with one punch, then flattening him with another.

On the back of that glorious win, Woodly was paired with former champion Carlos Condit, whose knee gave out from the damage Woodley’s kicks administered, forcing retirement from their fight.  The wins were vicious, powerful and memorable.

While the market considers many factors, in this case it may be feeling the pressures of recency bias. Lingering images of MacDonald involve Lawler and Maia doing damage, while lingering images of Woodley have him standing over fallen opponents. While there’s no question Woodley is capable of administering that damage, those images have a lasting impression. This is just one factor that suggests there may be value in betting MacDonald, who is at 2.210.

Home field advantage

While MacDonald isn’t a resident of Vancouver or even British Columbia, he is a Canadian, a reality that virtually assures a uniform crowd will be backing him at UFC 174. Canadian cards are routinely built to feature Canadians in as many fights as possible to add entertainment for patriotic fans.

It is well established in sport that a) HFA does exist and b) is generally heightened by proximity of fans to competitors. In MMA, the best seats are situated so those paying premium seating prices can actually hear the contact being made by the competitors. Therefore, it stands to reason MacDonald’s nationality in this case will prove to be a marked advantage.

The match-up

On paper, the fight appears to be a good one for MacDonald. Carrying a three-inch reach advantage, and can boast of having only been knocked out once, with seven seconds left in his fight against Condit in 2010. This is a result of MacDonald’s penchant for controlling fight pace, which could force Woodley out of his aggressive comfort zone.

The two pugilists bring different striking styles, with MacDonald throwing 50% more strikes than Woodley but landing a lower percentage as he uses his reach to maintain distance with opponents. It’s that distance that sees MacDonald out-land his opponents by some 60%; Woodley absorbs as many as he lands.

Both fighters bring wrestling pedigree to their fights and their grappling games profile similarly*:

MacDonald

Woodley

Takedowns Average/15 min.

2.7

2.43

Takedown Accuracy

57%

46%

Takedown Defense

77%

94%

Submission Average/15 min.

0.7

0.6

* Statistics courtesy fightmetric.com.

It’s not surprising then that their respective means of victory (MacDonald/Woodley KO wins: 6/4, sub wins 6/5, decision wins 4/4) are also similar, even if they take different paths.

Conclusion

With both wary of the other’s takedowns, this looks to be a battle of MacDonald’s control vs. Woodley’s power. As good as Woodley has looked in recent fights, MacDonald has age, reach and the crowd on his side. Throw in recency bias and Woodley’s flash and you have a line that’s likely skewed towards the ‘visitor’. That’s not to say MacDonald is assured the victory, but that there may be value in backing the Canadian Saturday.

Agree or Disagree? Bet UFC 174 here.

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