среда, 30 июля 2014 г.

The Big Wednesday Multiple: Champions League Special

How far can Dnipro go?

Paul Robinson was at it again last week as he followed up his 16/1 winner a fortnight ago with a 17/2 success. He's aiming for the hat-trick today, here are his selections...

Bet 1: Dnipro (HOME) @ 1.72 (8/11) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 17:00 BST

Dnipro will be hoping to make the group stage of the Champions League after a few years of cutting their teeth in the Europa. They were knocked out by Tottenham last season but their downfall came at White Hart as opposed to at home.

The Ukranian outfit are typically strong at the Dnipro-Arena and they've lost just one of their last 12 there - winning nine. Myron Markevych will know that his side need to take a lead to Denmark if they have a realistic shot of making it through the tie, and I expect them to achieve it.

FC Copenhagen exited this competition during the group phase last season but in all fairness, they were drawn against Real Madrid, Juventus and Galatasaray. 

My main concern for them here though is that while they've produced some good results in front of their own fans, it's generally been defeats on the road in Europe.

Bet 2: Zenit St Petersburg (AWAY) @ 1.5 (1/2) - Available on Betfair Live Video at 17:00 BST

Zenit have been regulars in the Champions League for a number of years now and after strengthening their squad in the close season, they will be targeting a minimum of a last 16 place.

Andr Villas-Boas' men should have more than enough quality to get the job done over two legs in this tie, but for a team that won at both Porto and Borussia Dortmund last term, they are more than capable of winning in Cyprus this evening.

AEL Limassol are back in this competition for the first time since 2012 but they haven't had the easiest of draws. While Ivaylo Petev's side usually run out the victors at the Tsirion Stadium, they don't normally face opposition of this calibre, and I can't see how they will be able to cope with the Russians today.

Bet 3: Feyenoord v Besiktas (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.95 (19/20)  

Feyenoord may have lost top scorer, Graziano Pell, to Southampton but I still envisage most of their fixtures this season being high-scoring and this one shouldn't be any different.

Dutch teams are typically better at going forward than they are at defending and Feyenoord's matches last season averaged 3.41 goals each time. After a poor campaign in the year prior, the Rotterdam based club are back in the Champions League and manager, Fred Rutten, will surely send his side out to get a few goals.

Besiktas finished third in the Turkish Super League last term, meaning that they are back in this competition for the first time since 2009. With 53 scored and 33 conceded, The Black Eagles' matches averaged 2.53 goals per 90 minutes, and while they don't keep many clean sheets on the road, it's a rare occurrence that they fail to score themselves.

Bet 4: Legia Warsaw v Celtic (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.61 (8/13) - Live on Premier Sports and Betfair Live Video at 19:45 BST

Legia Warsaw thrashed St Patrick's 5-0 last week to make it through to this round of the competition but it is worth noting that in the first leg - at home - the score was 1-1. In fact, five of their last seven in front of their own fans have now gone under 2.5 goals.

Henning Berg's side will be looking to keep a clean sheet as there shouldn't be too many goals in this tie, so conceding an away one could prove fatal.

Celtic have pulled off some magnificent results in the Champions League over the past couple of seasons but one thing has been a constant - their games have been low-scoring.

Eight of their last 13 have had two goals or less, but if we narrow that down to their matches away from Scotland, we can see that five of their last half dozen have gone under 2.5.

Recommended Multiple

Back Dnipro @ 1.72 (8/11)
Back Zenit St Petersburg @ 1.5 (1/2)
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Feyenoord v Besiktas @ 1.95 (19/20)
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Legia Warsaw v Celtic @ 1.61 (8/13); The Multiple pays approximately 8.1 (7/1)

Multiple prices are based on our Sportsbook product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 30 pts
Returned: 77.37 pts
P/L: + 47.37 pts
(2013 P/L: - 15.49 pts)

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