ATP Citi Open 2014 Betting: Nishikori to show his quality in DC

Will Kei Nishikori be celebrating in DC come Sunday?

The ATP World Tour moves on to Washington DC this week, where hot and humid temperatures at the Citi Open won't be a problem for Kei Nishikori, says tennis expert Sean Calvert...

Last week in Gstaad was another that followed the recent trend of my picks losing to an eventual finalist and this time it was Guillermo Garcia-Lopez that disappointed.

The Spaniard was taken down by runner-up Juan Monaco in round one and thankfully after a thoroughly pointless few weeks in the calendar wedged in between two seasons we're back on hard courts in week 31.

The US Open Series officially started last week in Atlanta, but the Citi Open in Washington is the first event on the North American hard court swing that attracts some of the bigger names of the tour.

Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov all represent the top-10 here this week at the William H.G. Fitzgerald Tennis Centre in Rock Creek Park, along with the likes of Kei Nishikori, John Isner and Richard Gasquet.

The first thing to be aware of here is the heat - it's usually insanely hot and humid here and only the hardiest of competitors will survive the conditions in DC this week.

This ATP 500 event is played on outdoor hard on a reasonably pacy Decoturf court and recent winners here have included Juan Martin Del Potro, who's won here three times, Radek Stepanek and Alexandr Dolgopolov.

There's no Delpo this year, but he has started playing again after wrist surgery, and it looks a really wide-open betting heat with cases potentially being made for many of the competitors this week.

The draw looks pretty fair, with neither half really looking easier than the other and Berdych has been drawn with Nishikori, Gasquet, and Feli Lopez in the top half.

High seeds in the bottom half are Raonic, Dimitrov, Isner and Kevin Anderson and this big-serving half also includes Ivo Karlovic, while the back to form Bernard Tomic is also in the mix.

This has been an event that has thrown up some big-priced winners of late, with Steps and Dolgo landing the odds here and the Czech veteran could have a shot here again at a big price.

Stepanek has been in decent touch lately, with semi finals at Queen's and Bogota before and after a creditable effort at Wimbledon, where he gave Novak Djokovic a fright and he looks a decent outsider again this week.

The contenders
The market can't really decide upon a clear favourite this week, with Berdych, Raonic, Dimitrov and Nishikori vying for favouritism, but my preference of the four would be Nishikori.

The Japanese disappointed with his fitness yet again at Wimbledon and was beaten by Raonic, but after almost a month off the match court he should be fit and ready to challenge again.

Berdych for my money doesn't win anywhere near enough titles to be as short as he often is in the betting, while Dimitrov should go well, but he too has disappointed too many times to be favourite here.

Raonic I simply don't rate as highly as Kei, but his serve will take him so far, although his half of the draw may turn into a serving contest with Isner et al.

Talking of Isner he'll do very well to make a third Washington final after a very tough week in sweltering conditions in Atlanta that at the time of writing is still on going.

Gasquet has had fitness problems again and withdrew from Atlanta after losing to Victor Estrella Burgos in Bogota and it's hard to see the brittle Frenchman winning in these Washington conditions.

Kevin Anderson has at least avoided Berdych in the draw, but a poor loss last week to Thiemo de Bakker in Atlanta doesn't bode well for him.

Shortlist
Anderson may well be beaten to a quarter final spot by either Tomic, Stepanek or Dimitrov and with Bernie fresh from a very good week in Bogota the Aussie could well prove a spoiler to Dimitrov, allowing 67.0n/a shot Stepanek a run to the last eight.

From there the Czech veteran would probably face Isner or Raonic in the semis and at a huge price this former winner looks the best Cash Out option.

But for the outright win, Nishikori's draw sees him alongside Yen-Hsun Lu, Jeremy Chardy and Gasquet with not a lot else between Kei and a semi final clash with maybe Berdych.

Kei has won three of their four tour level meetings and assuming he's injury-free this week he looks the best of the group of favourites for my money.

Recommended Bet
Back Nishikori at 6.05/1

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Stepanek at 67.0n/a