World Cup Opta Stats: Netherlands to struggle through

Wesley Sneijder has a great World Cup knockout phase record

Michael Lintorn's interpretation of the Opta stats is that Netherlands will beat Costa Rica, but after a great deal of strain...

Netherlands v Costa Rica
Saturday, 21:00
Live on BBC One

Match Odds: Netherlands 1.558/15, Costa Rica 8.07/1, The Draw 4.3100/30

The Netherlands have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 World Cup knockout games

Though they have played much of this tournament with three centre backs, hushing opposition attackers isn't this Dutch side's speciality, with just one clean sheet obtained in four attempts since landing in Brazil. Costa Rica's sole failure to score at this World Cup came in their final Group D tie with England when a 0-0 was sufficient to top the group. Uruguay, Italy and Greece all caved under the pressure that Joel Campbell, Bryan Ruiz and co applied, while Netherlands are yet to fire a blank.

Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 2.285/4

The Netherlands turned the last four World Cup games in which they fell behind in regular time into victories

Despite their success at this World Cup, this isn't the most gifted Netherlands squad ever. Several of their defenders are Eredivisie up-and-comers rather than Champions League-proven stars and there is a shortage of midfield quality exacerbated by Nigel de Jong's injury. However, two assets that they possess have made passage to the quarter-finals possible: great team spirit and Louis van Gaal's eye for a match-altering substitution. Those assets dug them out when trailing against Spain, Australia and Mexico, so 10.09/1 is a huge price on another hearty comeback.

Best Bet: Back Netherlands to win from behind @ 10.09/1

Wesley Sneijder has scored five goals in his last five World Cup knockout matches

Sneijder hasn't been anywhere near as impressive at this World Cup as in 2010 when he was one of the outstanding performers, with his group-stage displays adding substance to the theory that, even at the fairly youthful age of 30, his best years are behind him. The Galatasaray number ten since showed with his emphatic equaliser against Mexico though that his flair for big-match intervention has not dimmed, and he will again be required to play a decisive role against Costa Rica.

Recommended Bet: Back Sneijder to score @ 3.711/4