Brazil shouldn't have to suffer so much against the Netherlands
Michael Lintorn has scrutinised the Opta stats and foresees a less wounding start for Brazil against Netherlands...
Brazil v Netherlands
Saturday, 21:00
Live on ITV
Match Odds: Brazil 2.226/5, Netherlands 3.412/5, The Draw 3.8514/5
Brazil have won two and lost one of their three previous appearances in the third place match
This will be a tricky assignment for Brazil in that it is unclear whether they will have the fans behind them despite boasting home advantage in Brasilia, owing to the furious reaction to their semi-final thrashing by Germany. However, the stats are in their favour. Whereas Netherlands lost their one prior third-place play-off against Croatia in 1998, Brazil have a 67% success rate in the consolation clash. Additionally, three of the four former host nations to have fought for third place prevailed.
Recommended Bet: Back Brazil to win @ 2.226/5
Netherlands scored 12 in their first four games but failed to net in the quarter-final or semi-final, despite both going to extra-time
This isn't quite enough to tempt us towards the Brazil clean sheet as they have only kept one so far, yet it inspires faith that a Germany-style disaster will be avoided, and hints that third-place play-off convention will be shunned in a rare low-scoring bronze-medal match. After starting the competition with epic six and five-goal showdowns, three of Netherlands' last four fixtures had under 2.5, while the exception against Mexico crept over thanks to their 88th and 94th minute lead-overhaulers.
Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 2.427/5
Ten of the Netherlands' 12 goals have come after half-time; the last four came after the 75th minute
Brazil's prospects of avoiding another 0-5 half-time deficit are helped monumentally by the fact that their opponents haven't notched a first-half goal in four encounters. The sole occasion that Brazil fired more than once in the first 45 minutes was against already-eliminated Cameroon in their final Group A contest, so the trends indicate that there should be no more than one first-half strike. That pattern was adhered to in their two other meetings this decade, which were 1-0 and 0-0 at the break.
Best Bet: Back under 1.5 first-half goals @ 1.625/8
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